Gold (XAUUSD): there is a reason for growth

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have returned to 4,500 USD as encouraging news comes from the Middle East. Discover more in our analysis for 29 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose in response to positive developments in the Middle East
• The market needs to hold prices above 4,500 to maintain a chance of continued growth
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 May 2026: 4,525

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices stabilised near 4,500 USD per troy ounce on Friday after recovering the previous day. Reports of preliminary agreements between the US and Iran supported the market and reduced concerns about further increases in inflation and interest rates.

According to media reports, Washington and Tehran are discussing a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, the start of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, and the restoration of full shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the final agreement remains in question. Reports say that Donald Trump has not yet approved the proposed terms of the deal. US Vice President JD Vance also noted that it is still too early to talk about the timing and probability of the final agreement.

Gold (XAUUSD) has remained under significant pressure since late February. The sharp rise in oil prices following the escalation of the conflict in Iran fuelled inflation expectations and forced investors to revise their forecasts for the monetary policy of the major central banks.

At the same time, the market still expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year. However, Fed officials continue to warn that inflation risks remain high, meaning room for policy easing is limited for now.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast remains cautious.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) remains under pressure after the strong decline from the May highs around 4,750–4,780. In the middle of the month, the market formed a stable downward structure with a series of lower highs and lows, and sellers pushed quotes towards the 4,380–4,400 area. It was there that demand emerged, allowing gold to rebound sharply.

Prices are currently hovering around 4,500, near the middle Bollinger Band. Following the strong recovery from local lows, the market entered a consolidation phase. The nearest resistance is located in the 4,525–4,590 area, where sellers had repeatedly become active earlier. Support remains around 4,400–4,380. As long as prices hold above this zone, the likelihood of a continued recovery remains high.

The technical picture looks neutral with a moderately positive bias. MACD remains in negative territory, but the histogram is gradually reducing the depth of the decline, indicating weakening bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has risen into overbought territory after a strong rebound, signalling the risk of a short-term pause or local correction. To develop a full-fledged recovery, buyers need to gain a foothold above 4,525–4,590. Otherwise, the market may test support at 4,400–4,380 again.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with signs of corrective recovery
• Key resistance levels: 4,525 and 4,590
• Key support levels: 4,400 and 4,380

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level and consolidation above 4,525 would confirm a recovery wave amid improving news around US-Iran negotiations.

• Take Profit: 4,590
• Stop Loss: 4,490

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,400 support level would indicate renewed selling pressure and a return to the downtrend.

• Take Profit: 4,380
• Stop Loss: 4,430

Risk factors

The main risk for buyers remains the release of US PCE inflation data. Another risk factor remains the lack of a final agreement between the US and Iran.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose on positive news from Iran and the US. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 29 May 2026, suggests the upward momentum could continue to 4,525.

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