Buyers are regaining control of XAUUSD

XAUUSD quotes are holding near important technical levels, while investors are waiting for the release of key US data. The current quote is 4,514 USD. More details are in our analysis for 1 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset
• Investors are waiting for the release of the monthly US employment report at the end of the week
• The probability that the Fed will keep monetary policy tight until the end of the year continues to rise
• XAUUSD forecast for 1 June 2026: 4,350

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are correcting after rising for two trading sessions in a row and rebounding from the key resistance level of 4,575 USD. Despite continuing pressure from sellers, buyers managed to return the price inside the sideways range, which may indicate a false breakout of its lower boundary and the preservation of potential for a further recovery.

Geopolitical uncertainty is also supporting XAUUSD prices. US and Iran attempts to reach a long-term ceasefire agreement are still showing limited progress, which is supporting demand for safe-haven assets.

The upcoming monthly US employment report remains at the centre of investors’ attention, with publication scheduled for the end of the week. The data may provide a clearer view of the condition of the US labour market and influence expectations regarding the Fed’s next steps.

At the same time, market participants are increasingly pricing in the probability that the Fed will keep monetary policy tight until the end of the year against the backdrop of accelerating inflation. Such expectations differ markedly from the previous consensus, which assumed interest rate cuts in the coming months, and this is limiting gold’s upside potential.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are falling after rebounding from the resistance level of 4,575 USD per ounce. The price is currently testing the EMA-65 line, and a confident breakout below it may increase pressure from sellers. Today’s XAUUSD forecast points to the development of a downward move towards the 4,350 USD level.

The technical picture remains favourable for the formation of a bearish impulse. The Stochastic Oscillator reached the overbought zone and formed a sell signal as a result of a downward crossover of the lines. This points to weaker upward impulse and increases the probability of a further decline in quotes. An additional confirmation of the scenario will come from a breakout of the lower boundary of the corrective upward channel with price consolidation below 4,510 USD.

The alternative scenario provides for a resumption of growth in the event of a confident breakout of resistance at 4,580 USD and consolidation above this level. Such a signal will confirm the return of control to buyers and open the way for the continuation of the upward move towards 4,725 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downwards
• Key resistance levels: 4,575 and 4,705
• Key support levels: 4,460 and 4,355

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A rebound from the key resistance at 4,575 will create conditions for opening sell trades, while a breakout of the lower boundary of the bullish channel with quotes consolidating below 4,510 will increase pressure from the bears.

• Take Profit: 4,350
• Stop Loss: 4,590

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of resistance at 4,575 will indicate renewed pressure from the bulls and the resumption of growth in XAUUSD quotes.

• Take Profit: 4,705
• Stop Loss: 4,560

Risk factors

The key risk to the downside scenario remains the return of buyer demand against the backdrop of continuing geopolitical tension, which is supporting interest in XAUUSD as a safe-haven asset. Additional pressure on the bearish scenario may come from a strong US employment report, which will strengthen expectations of Fed easing and trigger a fresh recovery in XAUUSD.

Summary

Gold remains supported against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, but further XAUUSD dynamics will largely be determined by US labour market data and changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. At the same time, XAUUSD technical analysis indicates that, as long as quotes remain below resistance at 4,575 USD, the downside scenario remains the priority, with the nearest target around 4,350 USD.

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