XAUUSD is preparing a surprise, the market is waiting

Gold continues its attempts to recover and reverse the downtrend, with prices currently standing at 4,520 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 2 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US President announced a partial ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah
• The markets are still pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike
• Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release may affect XAUUSD prices
• XAUUSD forecast for 2 June 2026: 4,570

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 2 June 2026, shows that, after falling, gold has made another attempt to recover its positions. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are hovering around 4,520 USD per ounce.

The US President announced a partial ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which slightly weakened the USD as a safe-haven asset, supporting gold. He also stated that an agreement to extend the ceasefire with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached next week, reducing the negative pressure on the USD.

Contrary to Trump’s optimism, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had suspended communications with Washington due to Israel’s actions in Lebanon. This maintains uncertainty about the ceasefire agreement and supports demand for the USD.

Markets continue to price in a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year due to inflation risks caused by high oil prices. This makes the dollar more attractive than other currencies and non-yielding gold.

Gold is being buoyed by the temporary lull in the Middle East conflict, but the pause in US-Iran talks and hawkish expectations regarding the Fed are pushing prices down. Technically, the bears control the market. The publication of labour market statistics, Nonfarm Payrolls, on Friday may cause some adjustments to XAUUSD quotes and temporarily divert investors’ attention from geopolitics.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Following the pattern signal, quotes may continue the upward wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the 4,570 USD resistance level could act as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario, with prices declining to 4,450 USD before growth.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,570 and 4,700
• Key support levels: 4,450 and 4,350

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A rebound from the 4,570 resistance level would create conditions for opening sell trades due to increased selling pressure.

• Take Profit: 4,350
• Stop Loss: 4,595

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 4,605 resistance level would indicate renewed buying pressure and the beginning of a new upward wave in XAUUSD quotes.

• Take Profit: 4,700
• Stop Loss: 4,550

Risk factors

The key risk to the downside scenario remains the return of buyer demand amid continuing geopolitical tensions, which is supporting interest in XAUUSD as a safe-haven asset. Additional pressure on the bearish scenario may come from a positive US employment report, which would strengthen expectations of Fed easing and trigger growth in XAUUSD.

Summary

Amid geopolitical swings, gold is attempting to regain ground, with the release of US employment data this week possibly providing support. Technical analysis of XAUUSD suggests growth towards the 4,570 USD resistance level.

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