Gold catches a wave: can XAUUSD maintain momentum after NFP?

Gold is forming a corrective wave after its surge. The main trigger of the week is the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Prices currently stand at 4,255 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 6 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 197 thousand, projected at 203 thousand
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 August 2026: 4,340

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 6 August 2026, shows that gold is forming another corrective wave after a sharp rise and is testing the 4,255 USD level.

Gold is developing an upward wave, reaching a nearly seven-week high. Pressure on the US dollar increased after US Treasury yields declined and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September eased, making the precious metal more attractive.

Reports of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic progress regarding the conflict with Iran pushed oil prices lower. Easing inflation risks prompted investors to reassess their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy, which proved favourable for the gold market.

Following weak private sector employment data from ADP, with the previous reading at 95 thousand and the actual figure at 44 thousand, market participants became more cautious in assessing the likelihood of a rate hike in the coming months. Lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and support demand for the safe-haven asset.

The XAUUSD forecast for 6 August 2026 takes into account that the key event of the week remains the release of the July US employment report. Nonfarm Payrolls data may determine further expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy and become a key factor for the global gold market in the coming days.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As the pattern signal develops, quotes may continue their corrective wave. Since XAUUSD prices have broken out of the ascending channel, the 4,340 USD resistance level could serve as the upside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario involving a price correction towards 4,200 USD before growth resumes.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,340 and 4,500
• Key support levels: 4,200 and 4,045

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 4,340 USD resistance level would increase bullish pressure and indicate continued upward momentum in XAUUSD.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,300

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, followed by consolidation below 4,200, would signal a bearish correction.

• Take Profit: 4,045
• Stop Loss: 4,230

Risk factors

Risks to the XAUUSD upside scenario are associated with a possible deeper correction and a return of quotes below key support levels. A stronger US dollar or a shift in expectations towards a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy could put pressure on gold and limit further bullish momentum.

Summary

Gold continues to strengthen amid a weaker USD and expectations ahead of the US employment data release. At the same time, technical analysis suggests that XAUUSD prices may correct towards the 4,200 USD support level before rising.

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