Gold market on edge as NFP set to decide XAUUSD’s fate

Gold continues to rise ahead of US employment data, with prices currently at 4,270 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 7 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 57 thousand, projected at 85 thousand
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 198 thousand, currently at 199 thousand
• XAUUSD forecast for 7 August 2026: 4,340

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 7 August 2026, shows that, following a correction, gold is forming another upward wave and testing the 4,270 USD level.

Yesterday’s US data disappointed the markets: initial jobless claims increased, while the ADP report showed that private sector hiring began to slow. Against this backdrop, expectations strengthened that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months. This was a positive sign for gold.

Following the weak figures, investors began to buy US Treasury bonds more actively, pushing their yields lower. As gold does not generate interest income, lower bond yields make it more attractive to long-term buyers.

The market is now awaiting the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, due today. It will largely determine expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future moves. If employment growth comes in below forecast, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining the current rate will increase, which in turn could provide additional support for gold.

The XAUUSD forecast for today, 7 August 2026, takes into account that weak US data, falling bond yields, and hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy continue to support demand for gold. The main event of the day will be the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will show how the market may view US interest rates going forward and could significantly change investor sentiment.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As the pattern signal plays out, quotes may form a corrective wave. Since XAUUSD prices have broken out of the ascending channel, the target for a pullback could be the 4,220 USD support level.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers another scenario in which prices climb to 4,340 USD without testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,340 and 4,500
• Key support levels: 4,220 and 4,045

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 4,340 USD resistance level would increase bullish pressure and indicate a continuation of the XAUUSD uptrend.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,300

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, with prices consolidating below 4,220, would signal a continued bearish correction.

• Take Profit: 4,045
• Stop Loss: 4,245

Risk factors

Risks to the XAUUSD upside scenario include a possible deeper correction and a return below key support levels. A stronger US dollar or a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations towards a more hawkish stance could put pressure on gold and limit further upside. Strong Nonfarm Payrolls data could provide additional support for the USD.

Summary

Gold continues to rise amid expectations for the Nonfarm Payrolls report and a weaker USD. At the same time, XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 4,220 USD before further growth.

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