Gold (XAUUSD) on the rise, driven by central bank demand

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 4,400 USD, with all eyes on signals from US economic data. Discover more in our analysis for 12 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) resumed growth amid expectations surrounding economic data and support from central banks
• Large-scale gold purchases by central banks are providing strong support
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 August 2026: 4,436

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) stabilised around 4,400 USD per ounce on Wednesday after a volatile start to the week. Investors are preparing for the release of key US inflation data, which could adjust expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

The market has yet to determine whether the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in September after the July pause. Rising oil prices are meanwhile increasing inflation risks and supporting a more hawkish rate scenario.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains an additional factor. Pakistan’s defence minister said that the US and Iran were close to a certain agreement, while media reports suggest that talks between Iran and Oman have already reached an advanced stage.

Investment demand and central bank purchases, particularly from China, continue to support gold. In July, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves by around 20 tonnes after purchasing about 15 tonnes in June, marking the largest monthly increase since October 2023.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) maintains a pronounced uptrend after a strong momentum from the 4,050–4,100 zone. Prices are trading around 4,401 and holding above the middle Bollinger Band, remaining close to the indicator’s upper boundary. After reaching new local highs, the market entered a consolidation phase, but the structure remains bullish.

The nearest key resistance level is located at 4,436. Consolidation above this mark would confirm a continued upward move and allow gold to reach new local highs. The first support is the 4,360–4,370 zone, followed by 4,306, with the key support level remaining at 4,222. As long as XAUUSD holds above 4,360, buyers retain the advantage.

MACD is in positive territory, but upward momentum is gradually losing strength, indicating a possible pause before the next move. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards from the lower part of the range and is now hovering around 40, leaving room for further recovery. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 4,360–4,436 range with a moderately positive bias.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,436 and 4,500
• Key support levels: 4,360 and 4,306

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,436 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and open the way towards the next target.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,400

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,360 support level would indicate a correction after the strong rise and create conditions for a decline towards the next support level.

• Take Profit: 4,306
• Stop Loss: 4,390

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD bullish scenario is related to US inflation data and shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Higher CPI readings could increase the likelihood of a rate hike, support the dollar, and put pressure on gold. At the same time, investment demand, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support XAUUSD.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) looks fairly strong amid central bank demand and uncertainty surrounding US data. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 12 August 2026, suggests moderate growth within the range towards 4,436.

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