Gold (XAUUSD) on the rise: US inflation data drives gains

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 4,440 USD, with slowing US inflation weighing on the dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 13 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year
• Slowing US inflation supported gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 13 August 2026: 4,515

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) reached 4,440 USD per ounce on Wednesday following the release of inflation data. Annual US inflation slowed from 3.5% to 3.4%, fully matching the forecast. Core inflation also declined to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.6%, which is a more important signal for the Federal Reserve. This data reduces the need for further interest rate hikes and supports expectations that rates will remain unchanged at the September meeting. Following the release, the yield on 2-year US Treasuries fell by around 4 basis points, while the 10-year yield declined by 3 basis points, and the dollar initially weakened. For gold, the combination of lower yields and a reduced risk of tighter Federal Reserve policy is a positive factor.

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 40% following the CPI data, from 46% before the release. At the same time, the CPI at 3.4% remains relatively high, so the data cannot be considered unequivocally dovish for the Federal Reserve. Strong PPI data, a rebound in bond yields, or a stronger dollar could limit gold’s further gains.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) is in an uptrend. Prices are testing the 4,440 resistance level. Support has formed at 4,355. The current trend could develop into a medium-term move and has strong potential for further growth.

The key support level is located at 4,395. If bulls can hold it, the uptrend will continue. An ascending channel can also be identified. A breakout of this channel would be the first signal of a sideways trend. Only a breakout below the support level would signal a global trend reversal.

Within the uptrend, the most likely scenario is a breakout above the resistance level, followed by a move towards 4,515. Otherwise, if support is broken, gold prices could fall to 4,280 USD per ounce.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,440
• Key support levels: 4,355

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,440 resistance level would confirm the continuation of the XAUUSD uptrend and open the way towards the next target.

• Take Profit: 4,515
• Stop Loss: 4,400

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,355 support level would indicate a correction after the strong rise and create conditions for a decline towards the next support level.

• Take Profit: 4,280
• Stop Loss: 4,390

Risk factors

The main risks to further gold growth remain a possible strengthening of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, strong US inflation and labour market data, rising US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. If the market again starts to expect higher interest rates or rates staying elevated for longer than previously anticipated, gold’s appeal will diminish. Easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking following a strong rally could put additional pressure on XAUUSD quotes.

Summary

Gold prices appear quite strong amid slowing inflation. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 13 August 2026, suggests moderate growth towards 4,515.

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