XAUUSD set for a surprise: Fed and record purchases support gold

Following a surge, XAUUSD is correcting, with profit-taking being the main trigger. Prices currently stand at 4,320 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 14 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The likelihood of a September rate hike has fallen to 35%
• In Q2, global central banks purchased about 289 tonnes of gold
• Soft US CPI and PPI data provides additional support for gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 14 August 2026: 4,430

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 14 August 2026, shows that gold continues a corrective wave after its rise and is testing the 4,320 USD level.

Following weak US employment and inflation data, the market is pricing in around a 35% probability of a September rate hike, down from 55% previously. This is fundamentally positive for gold, as lower rate expectations reduce the advantage of interest-bearing assets over the precious metal.

In Q2, global central banks purchased about 289 tonnes of gold, a record quarterly volume. China increased its gold reserves by around 20 tonnes in July, extending its buying streak. This factor provides long-term support for the market regardless of short-term changes in Federal Reserve policy.

Tensions between the US and Iran persist, while uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains a source of risk for the oil market and global inflation. In the event of renewed escalation, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset could increase.

After reaching their highest level in around ten weeks, XAUUSD quotes are correcting, driven, among others, by profit-taking after the recent rally. However, the lack of a new trigger limits further movement.

The XAUUSD forecast for 14 August 2026 takes into account that soft US CPI and PPI data, a lower probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, and record central bank purchases provide additional support for gold.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As the pattern signal plays out, quotes could continue their corrective wave. Since XAUUSD remains within an ascending channel, the pullback target could be the 4,287 USD support level.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers another scenario, in which prices rise towards 4,430 USD without testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,430 and 4,500
• Key support levels: 4,287 and 4,155

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,430 resistance level would confirm the continuation of the XAUUSD uptrend and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,410

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,287 support level would indicate a continued correction after the rise and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,155
• Stop Loss: 4,300

Risk factors

The main risks to gold’s further gains remain possible tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy, strong US inflation and labour market data, rising US bond yields, and a stronger dollar. Easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking after the rally could put additional pressure on XAUUSD prices.

Summary

Gold is losing ground amid profit-taking, but the likelihood of a rise is gradually increasing. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards the 4,287 USD support level before growth resumes.

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