Gold (XAUUSD) awaits fresh news: the market is prepared to wait

Gold (XAUUSD) prices start the week near 4,375 USD, with the focus on the Federal Reserve rate outlook and geopolitical developments. Discover more in our analysis for 17 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes rose and stalled in anticipation of news
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike now stands at around 30%
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 August 2026: 4,436

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) begins Monday’s trading near 4,375 USD per ounce after a volatile Friday. The metal posted gains for the second consecutive week as investors assessed the outlook for US monetary policy.

The latest CPI and PPI data showed that inflationary pressures in the US remain subdued. This suggests that the impact of higher energy prices linked to the conflict surrounding Iran was limited in July and reduced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.

The market currently estimates the likelihood of a September rate hike at around one third. However, expectations could change following new labour market data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Geopolitics remains an important risk factor: renewed escalation could push energy prices higher again and revive inflation concerns. Meanwhile, gold continues to receive support from central banks, with China increasing its gold reserves by around 20 tonnes in July, extending its buying streak to 21 consecutive months.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) retains its bullish structure after a strong momentum from the 4,050–4,100 zone. Prices are trading around 4,376 and remain above the middle Bollinger Band, although they entered a consolidation phase after approaching 4,436. As long as quotes remain above the indicator’s middle band, buyers hold the upper hand.

The key resistance level is located at 4,436. Consolidation above this mark would confirm continued growth and open the way towards new local highs. The nearest support lies around 4,360–4,370, with the next one at 4,326. A loss of the 4,326 level would increase correction risks and could send prices back towards 4,270.

MACD remains in positive territory, but the upward momentum is gradually weakening. The Stochastic Oscillator has risen above 80 and entered overbought territory, so a pause or another local pullback may occur near the 4,436 resistance level. The base case remains movement within the 4,326–4,436 range with a moderately positive bias.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,436 and 4,500
• Key support levels: 4,326 and 4,270

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,436 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,410

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,326 support level would indicate a correction after the recent rise and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,270
• Stop Loss: 4,350

Risk factors

The main risks to further gold gains remain a possible revival of Fed rate hike expectations, strong US labour market data, rising yields, and a stronger dollar. Easing geopolitical tensions could also add to pressure on XAUUSD. At the same time, more dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and sustained central bank demand continue to support gold.

Summary

Gold prices remain resilient, but further gains may be difficult without fresh news. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 17 August 2026, does not rule out a gradual move towards 4,436.

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