Central banks are buying gold at a record pace: what is next for XAUUSD?

Despite ongoing support, gold is forming a correction and testing the 4,390 USD level. For more details, see our analysis for 18 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is around 35%
• The key upcoming event will be the release of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting on 19 August
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 August 2026: 4,345 and 4,480

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 18 August 2026, shows that gold is forming a corrective wave after its rise and is testing the 4,390 USD level.

Weak employment data, moderate inflation, and lower retail sales have prompted investors to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy. At this stage, the market estimates the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September at around 35%, which continues to provide fundamental support for gold.

US-Iran negotiations have effectively reached a deadlock, with Tehran announcing a shift to an offensive stance. Brent oil prices have risen to 89.00 USD per barrel, simultaneously supporting demand for safe-haven assets and increasing the risk of renewed inflationary pressure.

In Q2 2026, central banks purchased around 289 tonnes of gold, a record quarterly volume. China added another approximately 20 tonnes in July, continuing to build up its gold reserves. Such demand reduces the market’s exposure to short-term fluctuations in US interest rates.

The main upcoming event will be the release of the minutes of the July FOMC meeting on 19 August. Investors will be looking for signs of how strongly views within the Federal Reserve differ regarding the future rate path.

The XAUUSD forecast for 18 August 2026 takes into account that lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, weak US economic data, and record central bank purchases are supporting gold. However, rising yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds and a surge in oil prices are limiting this effect. The main near-term catalyst is the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD quotes formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As this pattern plays out, prices may form a corrective wave. Since XAUUSD remains within an ascending channel, the target for the pullback could be the 4,345 USD support level.

At the same time, XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests another scenario, in which prices could rise towards 4,480 USD without testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,436 and 4,480
• Key support levels: 4,345 and 4,270

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,436 resistance level would confirm the continuation of the XAUUSD uptrend and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 4,480
• Stop Loss: 4,410

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,345 support level would indicate a correction after the rise and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,270
• Stop Loss: 4,370

Risk factors

The main risks to gold’s further gains remain a potential revival of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, strong US labour market data, rising yields, and a stronger dollar. The publication of the FOMC minutes may put additional pressure on XAUUSD prices. At the same time, softer signals from the Federal Reserve and sustained demand from central banks continue to bolster gold.

Summary

Gold remains under pressure from US economic data and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 4,345 USD before further growth.

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