Market participants continue to price in the US Treasury's decision to increase buyback operations

The release of the FOMC minutes sent mixed signals to the market. XAUUSD quotes currently stand at 4,593. Discover more in our analysis for 21 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US Treasury doubled the volume of Treasury buybacks
• Most FOMC members consider a rate hike possible if inflation continues to rise
• The risk of higher inflation supports gold prices
• XAUUSD forecast for 21 August 2026: 4,565 or 4,440

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 21 August 2026, shows that gold is testing the 4,600 USD level within a strong uptrend.

The US Treasury announced that from 9 September it will at least double the volume of buybacks of long-term government bonds with maturities of 10–30 years, from a maximum of 2 billion USD to at least 4 billion USD per operation. The program will remain in place at least until 4 November. Its official goal is to improve liquidity in the long end of the Treasury market.

Lower Treasury yields have made the dollar less attractive, with the US Dollar Index falling close to three-month lows after the announcement. This traditionally supports XAUUSD, as gold is denominated in dollars. However, the program should not be directly equated with quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. The Treasury is primarily reshaping the national debt structure and supporting market liquidity.

The XAUUSD forecast for 21 August 2026 takes into account that demand for gold is rising among global central banks and private investors. They are seeking to avoid losses from inflation and the risk of further growth in US government debt, which has reached an all-time high of 40 trillion USD.

Technical outlook

The XAUUSD H4 chart shows a strong uptrend. A potential resistance level has formed at 4,605, while support is located at 4,450. If prices do not fall below 4,525, the uptrend will continue. Otherwise, quotes may attempt to break below the support level.

If prices fall below 4,525 and break through the 4,450 support level, XAUUSD could decline to 4,325. However, this scenario currently appears unlikely. If the rise does not continue, quotes may enter a sideways trend.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance level: 4,605
• Key support level: 4,450

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,605 resistance level would confirm the continuation of the XAUUSD uptrend and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take profit: 4,745
• Stop loss: 4,585
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:7

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,450 support level would indicate a stronger correction and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take profit: 4,325
• Stop loss: 4,410
• Risk-to-reward reward ratio: 1:3

Trade idea validity: until 12:00 AM, 21 August 2026

Risk factors

The main risks to the XAUUSD forecast include a potential recovery in US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, which would reduce gold's appeal. Additional pressure could emerge if the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance and keeps interest rates high for longer than expected.

Summary

Following the release of the FOMC minutes, gold tested the 4,600 USD level but failed to consolidate above it. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests further growth towards 4,745.

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