Fed prepares a surprise for XAUUSD at Jackson Hole

Gold is reaching its highest levels in recent months amid expectations surrounding Jackson Hole. XAUUSD prices currently stand at 4,632. Discover more in our analysis for 24 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Investor doubts about the sustainability of the US financial position persist
• The main event is a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh
• XAUUSD forecast for 24 August 2026: 4,565 or 4,440

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 24 August 2026, shows that gold continues its upward trajectory, hitting its highest levels in more than three months and testing the 4,650 USD mark.

At the start of the week, demand for the metal strengthened amid a weaker dollar and persistent investor concerns about the sustainability of the US financial position.

The main event of the week will be a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The market is awaiting signals regarding the future path of interest rates: more dovish rhetoric could increase gold's appeal, while an emphasis on inflation risks would curb demand.

The US Treasury's plans to increase the volume of long-term Treasury buybacks have so far failed to fully ease tensions in the debt market. Investors remain concerned about rising government debt and the sustainability of US fiscal policy. At this stage, these factors are increasing interest in gold as an alternative reserve asset.

Washington is preparing to announce new sanctions against Iran, while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains high. This environment supports demand for safe-haven assets, while a slight decline in oil prices today is partially easing inflationary pressure in the US.

The XAUUSD forecast for 24 August takes into account support for gold from a weaker dollar, concerns about US finances, geopolitical risks, and sustained central bank buying. The main short-term factor is Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, followed by July PCE data, which could change market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. As this pattern plays out, quotes continue to form an upward wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, the upside target could be the 4,720 USD resistance level.

At the same time, XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests another scenario, in which prices undergo a correction towards 4,555 USD before the uptrend resumes.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,655 and 4,720
• Key support levels: 4,555 and 4,440

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,655 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take profit: 4,720
• Stop loss: 4,635
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,450 support level would indicate a stronger correction and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take profit: 4,325
• Stop loss: 4,410
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

The trade idea expires on 24 August 2026 at 12:00 AM.

Risk factors

The main risks to further XAUUSD growth are associated with a potential recovery in US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, which would reduce gold's appeal. Additional pressure could emerge if the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance and keeps interest rates high for longer than expected.

Summary

Gold continues to strengthen amid a weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 4,720 USD per ounce.

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