XAUUSD consolidates near local highs ahead of employment data release

XAUUSD has moved into a technical correction after a two-day rally, with prices currently standing at 4,463 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 4 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Sustained demand from global central banks and uncertainty in the Middle East continue to provide long-term support for prices
• Expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve stance have eased, putting pressure on the US dollar and increasing the appeal of the safe-haven precious metal
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 September 2026: 4,695

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have entered a correction phase after rallying for two consecutive trading sessions. During this period, gold gained more than 2% and consolidated above the 4,400 USD resistance level. In the long term, XAUUSD remains supported by sustained demand from global central banks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

Comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller were a key driver of the rally. He said he could support keeping interest rates unchanged in September if upcoming data confirms easing inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, investors reduced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and increasing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate change at the September meeting at 50.4%.

The current decline in XAUUSD quotes remains limited and does not yet indicate a full-fledged reversal. Market participants are focused today on the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Weak employment data, particularly if accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate, could fuel expectations of Federal Reserve easing, add to pressure on the US dollar, and bring buyers back to gold.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD prices continue their downward correction but remain above the EMA-65, indicating that buyers still retain the upper hand. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests an attempt to resume the upward move towards 4,695 USD.

Technical indicators also continue to give bullish signals. The Stochastic Oscillator has exited oversold territory and formed a bullish crossover, indicating stronger buying activity. Consolidation above the 4,505 USD resistance level would provide an additional signal in favour of continued growth. This scenario would confirm a breakout above a local resistance level and create conditions for further strengthening of the upward momentum.

An alternative scenario would come into play if prices break below a local support level and consolidate below 4,440 USD. In this case, the corrective decline could deepen further, opening the way for sellers to develop a more pronounced bearish correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,505 and 4,575
• Key support levels: 4,440 and 4,400

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the local resistance level, followed by consolidation above 4,505 USD, would indicate renewed bullish momentum and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Current price: 4,463
• Entry level: 4,505
• Take profit: 4,635
• Stop loss: 4,445
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A decline and consolidation below 4,440 USD would signal renewed selling pressure and the continuation of a deeper correction.

• Entry level: 4,440
• Take profit: 4,305
• Stop loss: 4,465
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 5 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD upside scenario is the release of strong US labour market data. If job growth significantly exceeds forecasts and the unemployment rate falls, this would trigger a sharp rally in the US dollar and push XAUUSD below the psychological support level of 4,400 USD.

Summary

The current XAUUSD correction remains limited, with the next move to be determined by today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

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