The Federal Reserve leaves gold no chance

XAUUSD remains below 4,300 after the Federal Reserve raised rates and signalled the possibility of another similar move before year-end. The current price is 4,283 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 17 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00% and indicated that another increase could follow before year-end
• Lower oil prices are providing some support to gold, but the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is still weighing on the metal
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 September 2026: 4,234 and 4,170

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) remains below 4,300 after giving up its intraday gains in the previous session. Pressure on XAUUSD intensified after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signalled the possibility of another adjustment before the end of the year.

The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, as the market had expected. This was the first increase in approximately three years. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh also stressed that inflation remains elevated, while data released last week showed stronger-than-expected growth in core inflation in August.

The prospect of further policy tightening remains a negative factor for gold. Higher interest rates increase the appeal of yield-bearing assets and raise the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal, which does not generate interest income.

XAUUSD is receiving some support from lower oil prices as concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East ease. Saudi Arabia expects to restore around half of the East-West pipeline's capacity within a few days and bring it fully back into operation within six weeks. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also reported that 18 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of the week.

The outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) is negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD retains a bearish structure. After another failed attempt to consolidate above the 4,367 area, the price returned to the lower part of the Bollinger Bands range and is now trading near 4,283. The nearest key support remains at 4,234.

MACD is below the zero line, confirming the broader bearish backdrop. At the same time, the MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting that downward momentum has eased somewhat and that a local rebound remains possible. The Stochastic Oscillator, by contrast, has turned lower again and is approaching oversold territory.

Consolidation below 4,234 would confirm a continuation of the decline and open the way towards the 4,170–4,164 area. A return above 4,367 would weaken the bearish scenario and create conditions for a recovery towards 4,428 and then 4,513.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,367 and 4,428
• Key support levels: 4,234 and 4,170

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the key 4,234 support level and consolidation of XAUUSD below it would confirm the continuation of the medium-term downtrend and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 4,283
• Entry level: 4,232
• Take Profit: 4,170
• Stop Loss: 4,263
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 18 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish XAUUSD scenario would be stronger demand for safe-haven assets or a faster decline in energy prices, which could ease inflation expectations and reduce the likelihood of further Federal Reserve policy tightening. An additional technical risk is that the Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory, increasing the probability of a local rebound. A return above 4,367 would significantly weaken the current bearish scenario.

Summary

XAUUSD remains under pressure following the Federal Reserve's rate hike and retains a bearish bias. Today's XAUUSD forecast for 17 September 2026 does not rule out a decline towards 4,234 and then 4,170.

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