XAUUSD declines as inflation risks intensify in the US

XAUUSD is declining under pressure from hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials. The current price is 4,331 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 23 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin warned that elevated inflationary pressure in the US could persist
• Boston Fed President Susan Collins pointed to a growing probability of inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target
• Collins believes the Federal Reserve's September rate hike should help reduce inflation
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 September 2026: 4,225

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD is declining after rebounding from the 4,380 USD resistance level. For now, the 4,305 USD support area is preventing a further fall. Pressure on gold increased after Federal Reserve officials warned that inflation risks in the US economy remain elevated.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that reducing inflationary pressure could take a prolonged period. According to him, supply-side shocks are no longer an exclusively short-term phenomenon and could keep price pressures elevated in the economy. Boston Fed President Susan Collins also pointed to a growing probability that US inflation could remain noticeably above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Collins noted that the Federal Reserve's September rate hike should help bring inflation back towards the target. At the same time, market participants estimate the probability of another rate hike at the October meeting at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch data.

Today's XAUUSD forecast remains bearish.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD has consolidated below the EMA-65 line and remains within a descending channel, indicating that selling pressure persists. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests a continuation of the decline towards the 4,225 USD target.

Technical indicators continue to provide predominantly bearish signals. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching the resistance line, indicating the possibility of a renewed decline after a rebound from it. An additional signal in favour of the bearish scenario would be consolidation below 4,295 USD. This would confirm a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending correction channel and increase the probability of a further downward move.

The alternative scenario would become relevant if the resistance level is broken and XAUUSD consolidates above 4,395 USD. In this case, the price would move outside the descending channel, creating conditions for an upward correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,380 and 4,395
• Key support levels: 4,305 and 4,295

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A continuation of the decline, with XAUUSD consolidating below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and breaking below 4,295 USD, would increase selling pressure and create conditions for opening short positions with a target at 4,225 USD.

• Current price: 4,331
• Entry level: 4,295
• Take Profit: 4,225
• Stop Loss: 4,330
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 24 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish XAUUSD scenario is buyers holding the 4,305 USD support level and local profit-taking on the US dollar.

Summary

The current decline in XAUUSD from the 4,380 USD resistance level towards the 4,305 USD support level is being driven by hawkish rhetoric from Thomas Barkin and Susan Collins, who warned of the risks of prolonged inflation in the US.

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