XAUUSD declines amid strong US economic data

XAUUSD is trending lower under pressure from demand for the US dollar. The current price is 4,280 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 24 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• China has significantly increased its gold purchases this year, already buying more than in the whole of 2025
• The US Treasury increased buybacks of long-dated bonds to 6 billion USD per operation
• Barr believes further interest-rate increases may be needed to return inflation to the 2% target in a timely manner
• XAUUSD forecast for 24 September 2026: 4,165

Fundamental analysis

The current decline is being driven not by weaker demand for safe-haven assets, but by a sharp deterioration in the interest-rate backdrop for gold. The US dollar has risen to its highest levels in around two months, while the yield on 10-year US Treasuries reached 5.054% after strong macroeconomic data, its highest level since 2007.

The key negative factor remains the shift in expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. On 16 September, the regulator raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%, while most FOMC members allow for at least one more increase before the end of the year. Since the meeting, Federal Reserve officials have continued to emphasise that inflation remains too high and that restrictive monetary policy needs to be maintained.

The preliminary S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, reaching its highest level since July 2021. The acceleration in new orders and manufacturing activity is particularly important. A strong economy gives the Federal Reserve more scope to continue raising rates without immediately pushing the economy into recession.

Today's XAUUSD outlook remains bearish.

Technical outlook

On the D1 timeframe, XAUUSD formed support at 4,230 USD and resistance at 4,405. The price could form a sideways channel, but the broader trend remains bearish. Therefore, before continuing to decline, the pair could consolidate within a narrow range. The downside target could be 4,165.0.

The alternative scenario would become relevant if the price breaks above and consolidates above 4,370 USD. In this case, an uptrend could form, with the price potentially reaching 4,510.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: D1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance level: 4,405
• Key support level: 4,230

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A continuation of the decline, with XAUUSD consolidating below the support level, would create conditions for opening short positions with a target at 4,165 USD.

• Current price: 4,280
• Entry level: 4,215
• Take Profit: 4,165
• Stop Loss: 4,235
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.5

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 25 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks for XAUUSD are linked to Federal Reserve policy, US dollar dynamics, and US Treasury yields. Persistently high inflation and strong US data could support further Federal Reserve tightening, strengthen the dollar, and increase pressure on gold. At the same time, weaker macroeconomic data or a slowdown in inflation could prompt a reassessment of rate expectations and support gains in XAUUSD.

Summary

Strong US economic data and the sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields are reinforcing the fundamental case for the downtrend. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain an additional source of elevated volatility: a new escalation could sharply increase demand for safe-haven assets. From a technical perspective, a decline towards 4,165 is the most likely scenario.

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