US labour market resilience restrains XAUUSD buyers

XAUUSD is undergoing an upward correction despite strong US jobless claims data. The current price is 4,273 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 25 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 197,000
• Investors are pricing in the risk of another Federal Reserve rate hike this year amid the resilience of the US labour market
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 September 2026: 4,475

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD is rising after rebounding from the 4,245 USD support level. Gold remains under pressure amid rising US Treasury yields, which are strengthening expectations of another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase.

Fresh US labour market data added further pressure on XAUUSD. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 last week to 197,000. The figure was better than analysts expected, as they had forecast an increase in claims to 201,000.

The resilience of the labour market could support expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary-policy stance, including the possibility of another interest-rate increase this year, putting pressure on gold prices.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD is rebounding from the lower boundary of the bullish channel, retaining the potential to form a Wedge reversal pattern. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests a continuation of the rise towards the 4,475 USD target.

Technical indicators continue to provide predominantly bullish signals. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching the oversold area, indicating the possibility of renewed growth. An additional signal in favour of the bullish scenario would be consolidation above 4,320 USD. A breakout above this level would confirm that the price has moved above the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern and create conditions for the upward move to continue.

The alternative scenario would become relevant if support is broken and XAUUSD consolidates below 4,235 USD. In this case, the price would move outside the bullish channel, indicating stronger selling pressure and creating conditions for a bearish correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance level: 4,320
• Key support level: 4,245

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern, followed by consolidation above 4,320 USD, would create conditions for opening long positions and indicate that the pattern is playing out.

• Current price: 4,273
• Entry level: 4,320
• Take Profit: 4,475
• Stop Loss: 4,295
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:6

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 26 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The risk to the bullish XAUUSD scenario remains if the US dollar continues to strengthen. A further increase in expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike could be an additional negative factor, limiting demand for gold.

Summary

Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests a continuation of the upward move towards 4,475 USD, provided the price consolidates above 4,320 USD.

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