Gold plummets again: a hawkish Fed and strong dollar weigh on XAUUSD

Gold started the week lower amid a stronger USD, with prices currently standing at 4,180 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 28 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The market estimates the likelihood of another rate hike in October at around 66.00%
• This week, markets are awaiting data on ADP employment, PCE inflation, and Nonfarm Payrolls
• According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs recorded inflows of 18 billion USD in August
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 September 2026: 4,155

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 28 September 2026, shows that gold continues to decline after breaking below the 4,262 USD support level and is testing the 4,180 USD mark.

Following the September rate increase to 4.00%, the market estimates the probability of another hike in October at around 66.00%. A restrictive policy stance increases the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Brent crude oil prices could rise back above 100.00 USD per barrel amid renewed escalation between the US and Iran and uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices increase inflation expectations and, at the same time, add pressure on the Federal Reserve from an interest rate perspective.

The US Dollar Index is hovering near a two-month high, with rising oil prices and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening supporting the US currency. This is an additional headwind for dollar-denominated gold.

This week, markets are awaiting data on ADP employment, PCE inflation, and Nonfarm Payrolls. Strong figures could reinforce expectations of further rate hikes and add to pressure on gold.

According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs recorded inflows of 18 billion USD in August, while their total holdings increased by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes. This shows that long-term investor demand remains resilient despite changing rate expectations.

The XAUUSD forecast for 28 September 2026 takes into account that the main factors weighing on gold are high oil prices, a stronger dollar, and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, record ETF inflows and strong demand from China point to continued structural interest in gold.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Harami reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and could continue the downward wave as the pattern signal plays out. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within a descending channel, the downside target is the 4,155 USD support level.

At the same time, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another market scenario, with prices correcting towards 4,249 USD and continuing their downward trajectory after testing the resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,249 and 4,320
• Key support levels: 4,155 and 4,055

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,155 USD support level would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 4,180
• Entry level: 4,155
• Take profit: 4,055
• Stop loss: 4,180
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 29 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish XAUUSD scenario is the release of US employment and inflation data. An additional factor could be a decline in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, which could boost demand for gold.

Summary

Another wave of escalation between the US and Iran is affecting gold prices and driving quotes lower. Today's XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 4,155 USD level.

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