Gold awaits NFP: weak inflation gives XAUUSD a chance to recover

Gold continues its corrective wave ahead of the release of US employment data (NFP), with prices hovering at 4,185 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 2 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Investors are awaiting the release of September NFP data today
• The yield on 10-year Treasuries is near its highest level in more than two decades
• XAUUSD forecast for 2 October 2026: 4,245 and 4,110

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 2 October 2026, shows that gold continues to correct following a decline and is testing the 4,187 USD level.

US inflation data for August came in below expectations and reduced the probability of an October rate hike to around 28.0%, from about 70.0% earlier this week. This eases pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

Today, investors are awaiting the release of September NFP data. Strong employment figures could revive expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, while a weak report could strengthen hopes for a softer monetary policy stance.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries is hovering near its highest level in more than two decades. High yields on alternative assets increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.

The World Gold Council notes that global gold ETFs received 18 billion USD in inflows in August, while total fund holdings increased by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes.

The XAUUSD forecast for 2 October 2026 takes into account that lower expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and sustained demand from ETFs and central banks are supporting gold. However, high Treasury yields and a strong dollar remain significant constraints. The key factor today is the US NFP report: employment data could materially change market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next steps and, consequently, demand for gold.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could continue a corrective wave as the pattern signal plays out. Since XAUUSD remains within a descending channel, the target for a pullback could be the 4,245 USD resistance level.

At the same time, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also considers another market scenario, in which prices could decline towards 4,110 USD and continue their downward momentum without testing the resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,245 and 4,390
• Key support levels: 4,110 and 4,000

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 4,110 support level would confirm the end of the correction and create conditions for continued downward momentum.

• Current price: 4,185
• Entry level: 4,110
• Take profit: 4,000
• Stop loss: 4,140
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 11:00 PM on 2 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish XAUUSD scenario remains a further decline in expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes following the soft PCE data. Lower Treasury yields and a weak NFP report could provide additional support for gold.

Summary

The release of US employment data could provide additional momentum to XAUUSD and trigger a deeper correction. Today's XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a rise towards 4,245 USD before a decline.

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