The dollar and rising yields push gold (XAUUSD) towards 4,100 USD

XAUUSD prices are hovering near a two-month low due to a strong dollar and rising US Treasury yields. A weak US labour market report is easing the pressure, but technically, gold remains near a critical support level, currently trading at 4,121 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 6 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• A stronger dollar and rising US bond yields continue to weigh on gold
• The market estimates the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October at 78%
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 October 2026: 4,040

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) remains below 4,150 USD and is trading near two-month lows. The main pressure on XAUUSD comes from a stronger dollar and a sharp rise in US government bond yields, which are outweighing the support from weak US labour market data.

The dollar has strengthened partly due to the weaker euro amid growing political uncertainty and budget risks in Europe. A stronger US currency makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and further limits demand for the metal.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have risen to new 24-year highs amid a global bond sell-off, concerns over public finances, and inflationary pressure. An additional signal came from the ISM index: price pressures in the US service sector rose in September at the fastest pace in more than four years.

At the same time, weak employment data have reduced the likelihood of another Fed rate hike as early as October. The market currently estimates the probability of rates remaining unchanged at around 78%. Lower oil prices amid signs of increased supply from the Middle East are providing additional support for gold by somewhat reducing inflation risks.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is moderately bearish.

Technical outlook

On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD maintains a pronounced bearish structure. After failed attempts to recover above 4,212, prices have fallen back towards the lower Bollinger Band and are currently hovering directly above the key 4,100 support level.

MACD remains below zero, with the indicator line below the signal line, confirming continued bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory. A slight upward reversal in the indicator suggests a local rebound but does not yet indicate a change in the main trend.

The key level remains 4,100. A consolidation below it would confirm the continuation of the downward move and open the way towards the psychological 4,040 area. To ease the pressure, buyers need to push prices back above 4,172.10, which would set the stage for a recovery towards the next target at 4,212.55.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,172.10 and 4,212.55
• Key support levels: 4,100 and 4,040

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the key 4,100 support level would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 4,121.54
• Entry level: 4,098
• Take profit: 4,038
• Stop loss: 4,128
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 7 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish XAUUSD scenario would be a further decline in expectations of a Fed rate hike following weak labour market data. Falling Treasury yields or another surge in geopolitical tensions could quickly restore demand for gold. From a technical perspective, a move back above 4,172 would weaken the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a recovery towards 4,212.55.

Summary

Gold prices remain under pressure from a strong dollar and high yields as it tests a critical support area. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 6 October 2026, does not rule out a decline towards 4,100 and then 4,040.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.