Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: range-bound trading with a positive bias

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 9–13 March around 5,170 USD per ounce after rising amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Demand for safe-haven assets supports prices. Against this backdrop, the market expects the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut no earlier than September.

The upward structure remains intact on the daily chart. After reaching new highs in the 5,450–5,500 area, gold underwent a correction and moved into a consolidation phase. Prices are now holding within the 4,950–5,350 range and trading around 5,180–5,200. The baseline scenario for the week is movement within the 5,000–5,350 range while maintaining a medium-term upward bias and high sensitivity to geopolitical news.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) is hovering around 5,170 USD per ounce after rising amid heightened geopolitical risks. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East supports prices: the US and Israel are striking targets in Iran, while Tehran responds with missile attacks on neighbouring countries and energy infrastructure. Additional uncertainty comes from US plans to introduce a global 15% tariff. Rising energy prices have increased inflation risks and pushed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut to a later date – no earlier than September
• Support and resistance: the daily chart shows a steady uptrend formed back in autumn. After hitting new highs around 5,450–5,500, the market underwent a sharp correction and moved into consolidation. Prices are now hovering within the 4,950–5,350 range and trading around 5,180–5,200. MACD remains in positive territory, but momentum is gradually weakening, and the Stochastic Oscillator is turning down. The key support level is located in the 4,950–5,000 area, while the resistance level lies at 5,350–5,450
• Fundamentals and outlook: gold retains its status as a key safe-haven asset and remains sensitive to geopolitics and inflation expectations. The baseline scenario suggests continued consolidation within the 5,000–5,350 range while maintaining the medium-term uptrend

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week higher, holding around 5,170 USD per ounce. Prices are bolstered by demand for safe-haven assets amid a sharp escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

The military confrontation between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to intensify. The US and Israel are striking military and infrastructure targets in Iran, while Tehran is responding with missile attacks on some neighbouring countries, including energy infrastructure facilities. According to US authorities, an Iranian warship was sunk in international waters this week.

Iran, in turn, denied reports of possible contacts with Washington through the Ministry of Intelligence, calling such statements unreliable.

An additional factor of uncertainty was a statement by the US Treasury Secretary about introducing a global tariff of 15%. It may come into effect as early as this week and, by preliminary estimates, will remain in place for up to five months.

Amid the conflict, energy prices surged sharply, heightening inflation concerns in global markets. As a result, investors are revising expectations for US monetary policy, with the market now expecting the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut no earlier than September while still pricing two rate cuts into the 2026 outlook.

Under these conditions, gold (XAUUSD) retains its status as a key safe-haven asset and remains primarily sensitive to geopolitical news and the dynamics of inflation expectations.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, gold (XAUUSD) maintains a steady uptrend that formed back in autumn. After a gradual rise from levels around 3,700–3,800, prices consistently formed higher lows and higher highs.

In December and early January, the upward move accelerated. Quotes broke above several intermediate resistance levels and climbed above the 4,500 zone, accompanied by expanding Bollinger Bands and stronger momentum. In late January, the market produced a strong upward surge and reached a peak in the 5,450–5,500 area.

After hitting new highs, prices entered a sharp correction. Volatility increased noticeably, with several large candlesticks driving a rapid decline towards the 4,700–4,800 area. The market then moved into a recovery phase.

In February, quotes gradually returned above 5,000 and formed a new trading range roughly between 4,950 and 5,350. Gold is now trading around 5,180–5,200. Prices are hovering in the middle of the range, and the move looks like consolidation after a strong trend.

MACD remains in positive territory, indicating continued medium-term bullish momentum, although its strength is gradually waning. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning down from the upper part of the range, which may signal a short-term correction.

The nearest resistance level lies in the 5,350–5,450 area, while the key support level is located around 4,950–5,000. Overall, the market structure remains upward, but the current phase looks more like a pause within longer-term growth.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains solid, with XAUUSD holding around 5,170 USD per ounce. Demand for safe-haven assets supports prices amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The military confrontation between the US, Israel, and Iran is intensifying, and rising energy prices have again increased inflation risks. Against this backdrop, the market is pushing expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut to a later date – now no earlier than September.

From a technical perspective, the long-term uptrend remains intact. After reaching new highs around 5,450–5,500, gold moved into a correction phase and then stabilised, with quotes currently hovering within the 4,950–5,350 range and trading around 5,180–5,200. MACD remains in positive territory, but momentum is weakening, and the Stochastic Oscillator is turning down. The key support level is located in the 4,950–5,000 area, while the resistance level is in the 5,350–5,450 zone.

• Buy scenario

Long positions are possible if prices hold above 5,000, aiming to test the 5,350–5,450 area.

• Sell scenario

A breakout below 4,950 would increase the risks of a decline towards 4,750.

Conclusion: the baseline scenario is consolidation below 5,400 while maintaining the medium-term uptrend.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week around 5,170 USD per ounce, with demand for safe-haven assets supporting prices amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices. The market also pushed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut to a later date – now no earlier than September.

Technically, the structure remains upward, but after reaching new highs around 5,450–5,500, gold moved into consolidation. Prices are hovering within the 4,950–5,350 range. The baseline scenario suggests movement within the range while maintaining a medium-term upward bias.

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