Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: there is a glimpse of positivity

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 25–29 May near 4,540 USD per ounce after rebounding amid expectations of a possible agreement between the US and Iran. The market expects that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could help lower oil prices and ease inflationary pressure. At the same time, the Federal Reserve minutes confirmed that the regulator still considers a rate hike this year if inflation remains above target. This supports the dollar and limits gold’s upside potential.

The base case for the week suggests continued broad consolidation. As long as XAUUSD prices hold above 4,450–4,500, the market retains the potential to stabilise and attempt a recovery towards 4,660–4,810. A loss of support will increase pressure on gold and raise the risks of a new downward move towards 4,100.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) ended the week near 4,540 USD per ounce after rebounding on expectations of a possible US-Iran agreement. The market expects that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could help lower oil prices and reduce inflationary pressure. At the same time, the Fed minutes confirmed that the regulator still allows for a rate hike if high inflation persists
• Support and resistance: on the daily chart, gold remains under pressure after a correction from highs around 5,500. The market stabilised in a broad range after the drop to 4,450–4,500, but the rebound still looks limited. The nearest support is around 4,450 and 4,100, with resistance located in the 4,660–4,810 zone
• Fundamentals and outlook: the baseline scenario suggests continued sideways movement with attempts at a local recovery. Geopolitics and hopes for de-escalation support demand for gold, but rising US yields, a strong dollar, and the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric continue to cap XAUUSD’s upside. Further movement will depend on US-Iran talks, oil price movements, and Fed signals

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) closed the week above 4,500 USD per ounce after recovering amid growing expectations of an agreement between the US and Iran. The market expects that a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could help reduce oil prices and curb inflationary pressure. This partially eased concerns about further tightening by major global central banks.

Investors also focused on the Federal Reserve minutes. Most policymakers still consider a rate hike this year if inflation remains above the 2% target. As a result, the market is not yet ready to fully price in an easing scenario.

Technically, gold remains in a recovery phase after the decline.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) on the daily chart remains under pressure after a large correction from the all-time highs around 5,500. After a powerful rally in Q1 2026, the market faced profit-taking and a downward reversal amid a stronger dollar, higher US yields, and expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance. Since early May, prices have tested the 4,450–4,500 area several times, where local demand appears.

Gold is currently trading around 4,540 per ounce and remains below the middle Bollinger Band. Recent weeks have seen trading within a broad sideways range after the sharp impulsive drop. Recovery attempts so far appear limited: each rebound quickly meets selling pressure in the 4,660–4,810 area, suggesting buyer caution and the lack of sustained bullish momentum.

The technical picture remains moderately negative. MACD remains in negative territory, although the pace of decline is gradually stabilising. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned up from oversold territory, signalling the likelihood of a local bounce after the recent drop. However, the indicators do not yet confirm a full-fledged trend reversal to the upside.

The nearest resistance for gold lies in the 4,660–4,810 area. A consolidation above this zone could return the market to growth and open the way towards 4,950–5,100. Support levels are located around 4,450 and 4,100. As long as gold holds above 4,450, the market retains the potential to stabilise. However, overall, the structure remains vulnerable to further downside movements.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold (XAUUSD) remains mixed. The market is supported by expectations of a possible US-Iran agreement and hope for a restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which would reduce inflation risks and pressure from oil prices. At the same time, the Fed minutes confirmed that the regulator still allows for a rate hike this year if inflation remains above the 2% target. This supports the dollar and limits gold’s upside potential.

Technically, gold remains in a recovery phase after the large correction from highs around 5,500. After falling to 4,450–4,500, the market has stabilised and is attempting to hold above 4,500, but there is still no sustained bullish momentum. Attempts to rise quickly meet selling in the 4,660–4,810 zone. The nearest support is around 4,450 and 4,100.

• Buy scenario

A consolidation above 4,660–4,810 would increase the chances of continued recovery and open the way towards 4,950–5,100.

• Sell scenario

A breakout below 4,450 would bring pressure back to the market and increase the risks of a new move lower towards 4,100.

Conclusion: gold (XAUUSD) remains in a broad consolidation phase with cautious attempts to recover.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering near 4,540 USD per ounce after rebounding on expectations of a possible agreement between the US and Iran. The market expects that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could help lower oil prices and ease inflationary pressure.

Technically, XAUUSD remains in a broad consolidation phase after correcting from highs around 5,500 and dipping to 4,450–4,500. The market has now stabilised in the 4,450–4,810 range, but recovery attempts still look limited. The baseline scenario suggests continued sideways movement. As long as quotes remain below 4,660–4,810, the risks of a return towards 4,450–4,100 remain.

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