Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: recovery faces new test

Gold closed the first week of September near 4,470 USD per ounce as part of a recovery following the sharp correction from the August highs. Despite elevated volatility in recent sessions, the metal is still retaining a significant part of its summer gains.

In the new September week, XAUUSD performance will be particularly sensitive to new signals from the US and changes in interest rate expectations.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly performance: US inflation will be the main reference point for gold in the week of 7–11 September. Following unexpectedly dovish comments from a Federal Reserve official, the market significantly revised the probability of a September rate hike. As a result, price data may once again change investor expectations. Slower inflation would strengthen the case for a Fed pause and create a favourable combination of lower yields and a weaker dollar for gold. Persistent price pressures, by contrast, would revive expectations of tighter policy and limit the XAUUSD recovery
• Support and resistance: after the August rally towards the 4,700 area, gold entered a correction phase, although the decline towards 4,300 attracted buyers. By early September, prices had recovered to around 4,470 and are attempting to stabilise near the middle Bollinger Band. MACD remains above zero, but the momentum of the previous rise has weakened noticeably. The Stochastic Oscillator turned upwards after leaving oversold territory and rose to around the middle of its range, indicating a recovery in buying activity, although a full-fledged bullish momentum has not yet been confirmed
• Fundamentals and outlook: the baseline scenario suggests continued consolidation with a moderately positive bias. To strengthen their position, buyers need to push gold back above 4,555, after which the market could once again target the 4,696 area. Until this happens, the recovery remains part of a broader corrective structure. A return below 4,344 would signal stronger selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a deeper decline

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

The fundamental backdrop for gold improved following a downward revision to Fed rate expectations. Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged if price pressures continued to weaken. Following his comments, the likelihood of a September rate hike fell to around 50%, down from 63% a day earlier.

The reaction in the bond and currency markets was favourable for the precious metal: Treasury yields and the dollar declined noticeably. For gold, which pays no interest and is denominated in the US currency, this combination reduces the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

The geopolitical backdrop provides additional support. Oil ended last week with strong gains amid fighting in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This supports demand for safe-haven assets while also keeping the risk of a renewed acceleration in inflation alive.

Therefore, the fundamental environment remains favourable for gold but contradictory: lower rate expectations directly support the metal, while high oil prices may complicate the Fed’s fight against inflation and maintain the likelihood of further policy tightening.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the July–August rally significantly changed the market structure after the prolonged decline in spring and early summer. However, an attempt to consolidate around 4,700 failed, after which XAUUSD formed a sharp downward correction.

The nearest resistance level is located around 4,555, followed by the key 4,696–4,700 zone. A breakout above this area would open the door for a move towards the August highs and the upper Bollinger Band. The support level is located near 4,344, with the next downside targets at 4,240 and 4,136.

Prices have returned to the central part of Bollinger Bands after rebounding from the lower half of the range. MACD remains positive, but its dynamics show a loss of upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator, by contrast, is forming a bullish crossover after recently leaving oversold territory.

As a result, the technical picture remains mixed: the medium-term recovery has not yet been broken, but buyers need to overcome 4,555 to regain the initiative.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

After the sharp August move, gold is trading between the nearest technical boundaries, so entering within the current range carries increased risk. A clearer signal will emerge once prices break outside it.

• Buy scenario

A breakout above 4,555 would confirm a continued recovery and increase the likelihood of another move towards the key August resistance level.

• Entry level: buy stop 4,556
• Take profit: 4,696
• Stop loss: 4,480
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:1.8

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 11 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

• Sell scenario

A consolidation below 4,344 would indicate that the recovery momentum has been exhausted and that the correction is extending.

• Entry level: sell stop 4,343
• Take profit: 4,240
• Stop loss: 4,400
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:1.8

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 11 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Summary

Gold begins the new week after partially recovering from local lows but remains below the area where the previous upward wave stalled in August. The market is in a transitional phase, awaiting new momentum.

A breakout above 4,555 would improve the technical outlook for XAUUSD and bring the 4,696 level back into focus. A breakout below the 4,344 mark would support a continued correction.

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