Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: the 4,110 level will determine whether the decline continues

Gold ended the week in the 4,150–4,200 USD area, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. A strong US dollar and high yields continue to weigh on the metal, while renewed escalation in the Middle East is supporting inflation risks through higher oil prices.

This week, XAUUSD will need to hold the key 4,110 support level following a prolonged September decline.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the main factor will be a further reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory following the September employment report. The market currently estimates the likelihood of the rate remaining unchanged in October at around 75%, but economic resilience and inflation risks mean further tightening cannot be completely ruled out. The bond market's reaction is particularly important for gold. If data and Federal Reserve comments keep yields elevated, pressure on XAUUSD will persist. A decline in rate expectations, by contrast, would support a recovery from current lows
• Current trend: on the daily chart, gold continues to move lower after the August high around 4,700. Prices remain below the middle Bollinger Band and have approached the 4,110 support level, which separates the current correction from a deeper decline. MACD is well below zero and continues to confirm the sellers' advantage. The Stochastic Oscillator has left oversold territory and is turning upwards, increasing the likelihood of a local recovery but not yet changing the main downward structure
• Fundamentals and outlook: the baseline scenario suggests continued pressure on gold if the 4,110 level is broken. Consolidation below this mark would allow the market to return to the summer support area around 4,027 and increase the likelihood of a test of the psychological 4,000 level. If the 4,110 level holds, XAUUSD may move into a corrective recovery. The first serious obstacle for buyers will be the 4,250–4,300 area, while a stronger signal would appear only after a return above 4,400

What moves gold next week

Gold remains under pressure from the US dollar and high US Treasury yields. Expectations of persistently tight financial conditions are supporting the appeal of interest-bearing assets while increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

The Middle East remains an additional source of uncertainty. Rising oil prices following reports of a possible increase in the US military presence are intensifying concerns about renewed disruptions to energy supplies. While geopolitical tensions typically support safe-haven demand for gold, this effect is currently being partly offset by inflationary pressures.

Philip Jefferson noted that the Federal Reserve may need more time to determine whether further rate hikes are necessary. This is consistent with current market expectations: investors are anticipating a pause in October rather than an immediate continuation of the rate-hiking cycle.

The fundamental outlook therefore remains mixed. Geopolitical factors are driving demand for safe havens, yet high yields and a strong US dollar are currently exerting more direct pressure on gold prices.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD has formed a sustained corrective structure following the August reversal from the 4,690–4,700 area. A series of lower highs has brought prices to the lower part of the range, where the key horizontal support level at 4,110 is located.

A breakout below this mark would open the way towards 4,027, where a prolonged consolidation zone formed during the summer. The psychological 4,000 level lies further down. The nearest resistance level is located around 4,250, followed by the 4,365–4,400 area. The key upside barrier is at 4,401.66.

Prices remain in the lower half of Bollinger Bands. MACD has moved deeper into negative territory and is not yet showing signs of a sustained reversal. The Stochastic Oscillator, by contrast, has risen to around 34 points after leaving oversold territory, creating conditions for a short-term rebound.

The technical backdrop therefore remains bearish, but opening a short position directly above 4,110 carries an increased risk of a corrective move.

Gold trading scenario for next week

Gold is trading directly above the key support level, while the Stochastic Oscillator is already showing the first signs of recovery. Therefore, a sell signal will appear only after a confirmed breakout below 4,110.

Sell scenario

Consolidation below 4,110 would confirm the continuation of the downward structure and open the door for a move towards the summer support zone.

• Entry level: sell stop 4,105
• Take profit: 4,027
• Stop loss: 4,150
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:1.7

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 9 October 2026 (server time, GMT+3).

If XAUUSD prices hold above 4,110, the trade idea will not be activated.

Summary

Gold begins the new week at the critical 4,110 support level, while a strong US dollar and high yields continue to weigh on the market. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for 5–9 October suggests further declines if the 4,110 level is broken, with the nearest target at 4,027.

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