Crypto market outlook for the week of 19–23 October 2026: key levels and trading scenarios
The crypto market forecast for the week of 19–23 October 2026 covers BTCUSD, ETHUSD, XRPUSD, SOLUSD, and DOGEUSD, including key levels, events and trading scenarios. The main factor for BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SOLUSD, and other cryptocurrencies will remain shifts in investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on 27–28 October.
Key levels for the week
| Instrument | Week | Support | Resistance | Scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSD | −2.0% | 80,040 | 87,450 | Buyfrom87,545 |
| ETHUSD | −5.0% | 2,330 | 2,470 | Sellfrom2,320 |
| XRPUSD | −7.1% | 0.9845 | 1.6965 | Sellfrom1.50 |
| SOLUSD | −6.5% | 100.30 | 106.50 | Sellfrom100.10 |
| DOGEUSD | −8. 5% | 0.760 | 0.875 | Sellfrom0.0750 |
Events that can move crypto this week
| Date | Event | Instruments affected |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, 19 October 2026 | ETF flows | Daily inflows and outflows from spot ETFs remain a key indicator of demand for cryptoassets. This is particularly important for BTCUSD and ETHUSD, although strong flows could support the broader altcoin market. |
| Tuesday, 20 October 2026 | US state employment data and new housing construction statistics | Labour market and housing sector releases will be significant for expectations regarding US monetary policy. Strong data could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on cryptocurrencies, while weaker figures could support BTCUSD, ETHUSD, and risk assets more broadly. |
| Wednesday, 21 October 2026 | US usual weekly earnings statistics for Q3 2026 | This indicator helps assess inflationary pressure from the labour market. Rising wages could heighten concerns about tighter Federal Reserve policy, which would be particularly significant for BTCUSD and ETHUSD. |
| Friday, 23 October 2026 | CFTC Commitments of Traders report | The release will show futures market positioning, including Bitcoin and Ether contracts on the CME. It is primarily important for BTCUSD and ETHUSD, as it helps assess institutional sentiment and the balance of long and short positions. |
Crypto market fundamentals
Institutional capital outflows are putting pressure on the market. During the week of 12–16 October, net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs totalled 228.4 million USD, while Ethereum ETFs recorded outflows of 320.1 million USD. This trend indicates weakening investment demand and limits the potential for a cryptocurrency recovery.
The main drivers remain US inflation data and expectations regarding further Federal Reserve policy. Annual consumer inflation accelerated to 3.7%, while the Producer Price Index rose by 1.3% over the month, significantly exceeding forecasts. Nevertheless, the market predominantly expects interest rates to remain unchanged at the 28 October meeting. Over the coming week, BTCUSD, ETHUSD, and major altcoins will be influenced by changes in expectations for the Fed's policy rate, movements in the dollar and US bond yields, and capital flows into cryptocurrency ETFs.
Bitcoin price forecast: BTCUSD
On the D1 chart, a resistance level has formed at 87,435 and support at 80,040. The overall trend remains bullish, with a target of 92,145.
If the support level is broken, this would signal a reversal to a downtrend. The decline could target 76,500.
BTCUSD trading scenario
Ethereum price forecast: ETHUSD
On the ETHUSD D1 chart, a resistance level has formed at 2,470, while a support level is located at 2,330. The overall trend is bearish. The price is therefore highly likely to break below support, targeting 2,220.
If the resistance level is broken, the trend will turn bullish. In this case, the price could reach 2,540.
ETHUSD trading scenario
XRP price forecast: XRPUSD
The daily XRPUSD chart shows a recovery following August's decline, followed by a period of consolidation. On the H4 chart, a resistance level has formed at 1.4190 and support at 1.3090. The rise is highly likely to continue, with the upside target at the D1 resistance level at 1.6965. A breakout above this mark would open the way for continued upward momentum.
The price could form a corrective wave and break below the support level around 1.3090. However, the overall trend would still remain bullish.
XRPUSD trading scenario
Solana price forecast: SOLUSD
On the daily D1 chart for SOLUSD, a resistance level has formed at 106.50, and support is located at 100.30. The overall trend remains bearish, with a downside target of 95.45.
If the resistance level is broken, the trend will turn bullish. In this case, the upside target could be 112.60.
SOLUSD trading scenario
Dogecoin price forecast: DOGEUSD
On the daily D1 chart for DOGEUSD, resistance has formed at 0.0875, and support is located at 0.0760. The overall trend remains bearish, with a downside target of 0.0695.
If the resistance level is broken, the trend will shift to an upward one, with a potential upside target at 0.0910.
DOGEUSD trading scenario
Risk factors
The main risk factors for the cryptocurrency market during the week of 19–25 October remain uncertainty over future Federal Reserve monetary policy, high inflation in the US, and a possible strengthening of the US dollar. Rising expectations of an interest rate hike could trigger capital outflows from risk assets and put pressure on BTCUSD, ETHUSD, and major altcoins. Additional risks include weakening institutional demand, outflows from spot cryptocurrency ETFs, and a potential increase in liquidations of leveraged positions.
Summary and what to watch this week
In the forecast for 19–23 October 2026, buy scenarios have been prepared for BTCUSD, ETHUSD and SOLUSD, while sell scenarios have been outlined for XRPUSD and DOGEUSD. BTCUSD is closest to its entry level: a range of approximately 2.3% between the reference price of 81,550 and 83,450. During 19–25 October, cryptocurrency market participants will focus primarily on US macroeconomic data, changes in expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate, and institutional demand. Data on labour markets in individual US states and housing construction are expected on Tuesday, 20 October, followed by wage statistics on 21 October. The CFTC report, which provides insight into futures market positioning, will be published on Friday, 23 October. Daily capital flows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, movements in the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields should also be monitored.
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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.