XRP under pressure again: ETF inflows slow and US crypto regulation stalls

The XRP price is completing a correction after the recent upward momentum, currently trading at 1.4903. Discover more in our analysis for 30 September 2026.

XRPUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Total net inflows into spot XRP ETFs have approached 1.79 billion USD
• Ripple is developing tools for automated payments using XRP and the RLUSD stablecoin
• XRPUSD forecast for 30 September 2026: 1.6965

Fundamental analysis

The XRPUSD pair is trading amid renewed interest in cryptocurrencies, although XRP's next move largely depends on US Federal Reserve monetary policy, institutional capital inflows, and the development of Ripple's payment infrastructure.

One of the main factors supporting XRP remains capital inflows into US exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the cryptocurrency. Total net inflows into spot XRP ETFs have approached 1.79 billion USD. The availability of regulated investment products is expanding institutional investors' access to XRP and creating an additional source of demand.

Federal Reserve policy significantly impacts XRPUSD. In September, the US regulator raised the interest rate range to 3.75–4.00%. Persistently high rates increase the appeal of interest-bearing dollar assets and limit investor demand for riskier instruments, including cryptocurrencies. A stronger US dollar is adding further pressure.

The XRPUSD forecast for 30 September 2026 takes into account that the legal proceedings between Ripple and the SEC concluded in August 2025, although legal restrictions on certain institutional sales of XRP remain in place. In addition, on 15 September 2026, the US Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, which is aimed at creating a unified regulatory framework for digital assets.

Technical outlook

On the D1 chart, XRPUSD is recovering following the August decline, transitioning into a consolidation phase. On the H4 chart, the resistance level has formed at 1.5585, while support is located at 1.4640. The upward move is likely to continue, with the upside target at the 1.6965 resistance level on D1. A breakout above this mark would open the way for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today's XRPUSD technical analysis also considers another scenario. The price could form a corrective wave and break below the 1.4640 support level. However, the broader trend would remain bullish.

XRPUSD overview

• Asset: XRPUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.6965 and 1.5585
• Key support levels: 1.4640 and 0.9840

XRP trading scenario for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, followed by consolidation above 1.5585, would indicate a resumption of the uptrend and continued gains in XRPUSD, with the target at 1.6965.

• Current price: 1.4903
• Entry level: 1.5595
• Take profit: 1.6965
• Stop loss: 1.5440
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:9

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 6 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks for XRPUSD remain further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening, US dollar strength, rising Treasury yields, and a possible slowdown in capital inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs. Unfavourable changes in US digital asset regulation, a Bitcoin correction, and a broader decline in investors' risk appetite could create additional pressure.

Summary

XRPUSD analysis suggests a continued upward move provided the 1,4640 support level holds. Positive factors include the development of the Ripple ecosystem and institutional interest in XRP. Consolidation above the nearest resistance levels would open the door for a rise towards the 1.6965 target. At the same time, risks related to Federal Reserve policy, US dollar strength, and overall cryptocurrency market volatility remain.

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