EURUSD declines: the market favours the US dollar

The EURUSD pair continues to decline. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy easing. For a detailed analysis, please refer to our forecast dated 25 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• The EURUSD pair is falling due to the strength of the US dollar
• The Federal Reserve is expected to provide clarity on its intentions for September
• EURUSD forecast for 25 July 2024: 1.0822 and 1.0777

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday’s US PMI data was mixed.

Markit’s preliminary services PMI for July increased to 56.0 points from 55.3, while the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5 points from 51.6.

Key news this week for EURUSD includes the upcoming release of the US Q2 2024 GDP estimate this evening. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will also be published on Friday. This is one of the most crucial reports for the Federal Reserve, based on which the regulator assesses the inflationary environment.

The US economy is expected to have expanded by 2.0% in April-June compared to only 1.4% in Q1.

The anticipated Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for next week. Few expect the Fed to make significant decisions at this meeting; all predictions are for September. However, the Federal Reserve’s remarks regarding its September plans could be more detailed in this case.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 1.0825 and correcting to 1.0863. A further decline to 1.0822 is expected today, 25 July 2024. After the price reaches this level, a consolidation range could form around it. A downward breakout will open the potential for a further decline to 1.0777, representing the first target.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains in a weak position. Technical indicators support the EURUSD forecast for today, suggesting a further decline to the 1.0822 and 1.0777 targets.