EURUSD: the pair rises amid talks on Ukraine

The EURUSD rate rose to the price area near 1.0500, driven by the beginning of negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. Find out more in our analysis for 14 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the market is awaiting the eurozone’s GDP data for Q4 2024 today
• Current trend: upward momentum
• EURUSD forecast for 14 February 2025: 1.0400 and 1.0530

Fundamental analysis

The euro rate rose above a two-week high of 1.0400 after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to renegotiate reciprocal tariffs with the eurozone without immediately imposing new tariffs, easing concerns about a sharp deterioration of trade relations with the US.

Optimism about the euro currency also rose on hopes of an end to the military conflict in Ukraine, as Donald Trump promised to make every effort to start a peaceful settlement and held talks with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine.

Today, market participants will focus on the eurozone’s GDP statistics for Q4 2024. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged quarter-on-quarter and rise by 0.9% year-on-year. Stronger-than-expected data will support the euro, with the EURUSD pair likely to continue its ascent. Conversely, weaker figures could send the pair into a correction.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD rate shows an upward movement, which began after a rebound from the 1.0177-1.0200 support area. The price is currently hovering in a sideways range between 1.0200 and 1.0530. The direction of the price movement out of the range will determine further prospects for the asset.

Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests that the pair will have grounds to continue its upward trajectory to the area near 1.0530 if the bulls retain the initiative. Conversely, if the bears reverse the quotes downwards, the pair could decline to the 1.0400 support level.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is rising amid optimism associated with the negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Today, the eurozone’s GDP statistics for Q4 2024 could add to price volatility.