EURUSD resumes growth: a tense week lies ahead for the market

The EURUSD pair starts the week around 1.0837. US tariff risks loom large on the horizon. Discover more in our analysis for 31 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair has resumed growth at the start of a busy week
• Investors are assessing the risks of the upcoming US trade tariffs and trying to anticipate possible scenarios
• EURUSD forecast for 31 March 2025: 1.0862 and 1.0889

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate opened the last Monday of March around 1.0837.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his intention to implement retaliatory tariffs on all countries starting 2 April. He urged his advisors to adopt a more aggressive stance on trade policy.

The outlook is increasingly worrying. Markets are concerned that these measures could trigger retaliatory actions from key US trading partners, potentially fuelling inflation and slowing economic growth everywhere.

This Friday, the US will release its monthly employment report. It will draw significant attention as it will provide insight into the strength of the labour market and shape expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

The EURUSD forecast appears positive.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the primary scenario for EURUSD continues to point upwards, with targets at 1.0862 and 1.0889.

If the price dips to the intermediate support level at 1.0800, it could open the way for a decline towards 1.0763.

Summary

EURUSD has resumed its upward movement as the market positions itself against the US dollar ahead of a new wave of trade tensions. The EURUSD forecast for today, 31 March 2025, suggests buying pressure continues towards 1.0889 through 1.0862.