EURUSD: economic storm on 2 April – what will Lagarde and Trump say, and how will it hit the dollar

Speeches by the ECB head and the US President may boost the EURUSD pair to 1.0880. Find out more in our analysis for 2 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• ADP nonfarm employment change in the US: previously at 77 thousand, projected at 118 thousand
• ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech
• US President Donald Trump will also speak today
• EURUSD forecast for 2 April 2025: 1.0740 and 1.0880

Fundamental analysis

According to the forecast for 2 April 2025, the ADP nonfarm employment report in the US should show a rise to 118 thousand jobs. However, this remains only a projection. Last month saw a sharp decline in employment, and if the actual data again disappoints, it could further pressure the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for 2 April 2025 takes into account that ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak today. She is expected to address several key topics:

• ECB monetary policy: Lagarde will likely reaffirm the ECB’s commitment to reaching its 2% inflation target, despite disagreements within the Governing Council over the pace of interest rate hikes
• Trade barriers and Europe’s economic independence: in light of increasing trade restrictions from the US, Lagarde may urge Europe to strengthen its economic independence and prepare for potential economic conflicts
• Artificial intelligence development: Lagarde might express concerns about AI’s impact on Europe’s labour market and social model, emphasising the need for significant investment to prevent rising inequality

Additionally, the EURUSD forecast for today, 2 April 2025, anticipates a speech by US President Donald Trump in which he will likely announce new trade tariffs and address international relations. Trump states these measures aim to reduce US dependence on foreign goods and align with his broader economic agenda.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD price formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. At this stage, it continues its upward trajectory following the received signal. Since the pair remains within an ascending channel, the price could rise to the nearest resistance at 1.0880. A breakout above this level would open the path for a continuation of the uptrend.

However, the EURUSD rate could correct towards 1.0740 and gain its upward momentum after testing the support level.

Summary

In anticipation of ECB President Lagarde’s speech and Trump’s remarks, combined with the EURUSD technical analysis, the forecast suggests a potential correction followed by growth towards the 1.0880 resistance level.