EURUSD in an upward trend: bulls await US employment report

The EURUSD rate is strengthening, but sellers are holding the 1.1110 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 4 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US services PMI fell to 50.8 points in March
• Investors await the US employment report, which may influence Fed rate expectations
• EURUSD forecast for 4 April 2025: 1.1175

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising for the third consecutive session as the USD remains under pressure due to investor concerns about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. The market fears that the new tariffs and retaliatory measures from trading partners could slow global economic growth and lead to recession. Against this backdrop, traders are forecasting a series of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the first likely to come in June.

Further pressure on the USD came from weaker-than-expected US services PMI data for March, which fell to 50.8 from 53.5 in February, below the forecast of 53.0. Although the index remains above the key 50.0 threshold, its current level is the lowest since June last year, suggesting a potential slowdown in the sector.

Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming US employment report, which could reshape expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s further steps and increase volatility in the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating within a Triangle pattern following a sharp upward impulse. Today’s EURUSD forecast expects an upward wave to develop, with the price breaking above the pattern’s upper boundary and rising towards 1.1175. Technical indicators support the bullish outlook: Moving Averages point to a sustained uptrend, and the Stochastic Oscillator is rising after rebounding from the support line, signalling that the correction may be complete. A breakout above the Triangle’s upper boundary would confirm this scenario, with the price consolidating above 1.1115.

Summary

The EURUSD rate is gaining strength amid weak US economic data and expectations of Fed rate cuts. The EURUSD technical analysis points to continued upward potential, with a target at 1.1175.