EURUSD is poised for growth: the market awaits weak US sales

The EURUSD pair is rising aggressively, currently trading around 1.1370. Find out more in our analysis for 16 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US dollar is declining amid market caution ahead of the Fed chair’s speech
• US March retail sales data is expected today
• Weak data may support further EURUSD upside
• EURUSD forecast for 16 April 2025: 1.1565

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is gaining momentum following yesterday’s bearish correction. Buyers are actively pushing towards the 1.1380 resistance level – a breakout here could open the way to new local highs.

The US dollar is weakening as markets turn cautious ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders are waiting for signals regarding the Fed’s next steps amid an economic slowdown and persistent inflation concerns.

All eyes are also on today’s US retail sales data for March. The consensus forecast suggests a 0.2% decline, which may add to pressure on the US dollar and further strengthen the ongoing bullish trend in the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating within a Head and Shoulders pattern following a strong impulse move. Buyers have held the price above the key support level at 1.1280. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a new upward wave, with a breakout above the pattern’s upper boundary leading to a move towards 1.1565.

Technical indicators support the bullish scenario, with Moving Averages remaining upward-sloping and the Stochastic Oscillator reversing upwards from oversold territory, confirming the end of the correction and the resumption of bullish momentum.

The key signal for further gains will be a solid breakout above the nearest resistance and consolidation above 1.1380.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is supported by expectations of a 0.2% decline in US retail sales and increased investor caution ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech. The EURUSD technical analysis confirms the potential for growth towards 1.1565 as the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern plays out.