Correction or the start of a decline – what is next for EURUSD?

The euro continues its attempts to regain lost ground, with the EURUSD pair trading near the 1.1500 mark. Discover more in our analysis for 6 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Eurozone retail sales: previously at 0.1%, projected at 0.2%
• US government shutdown continues
• EURUSD forecast for 6 November 2025: 1.1550 and 1.1460

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast for 6 November 2025 reflects ongoing pressure from the strengthening US dollar. Amid rising demand for the US currency, the pair continues to trade near 1.1500, showing moderate volatility. Despite corrective moves, overall market sentiment remains in favour of the USD.

Key triggers influencing the EURUSD dynamics today:

• Market participants expect further tightening of monetary policy in the US, which supports the dollar and limits the euro’s recovery potential
• Weak macroeconomic data from the eurozone, particularly GDP and business activity, intensifies pressure on the European currency, signalling a slowdown in the region’s economy
• Retail sales in the eurozone are forecast to rise slightly to 0.2% from the previous 0.1%, which could temporarily support the euro amid increased market sensitivity to even modest signs of improvement
• The US government shutdown delays the release of several key data points, creating uncertainty and short-term volatility in the currency market

Overall, the euro has a chance for partial recovery after the previous decline. Technically, the pair is forming a corrective wave; however, sustainable growth requires stronger economic signals from the eurozone and a weakening of the US dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair continues an upward wave following the received signal. Since the price remains within a downward channel, the EURUSD pair may test resistance around 1.1550. A rebound from this level would open the door for the continued downward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests an alternative scenario, where the EURUSD rate declines towards 1.1460 without testing the resistance level.

Summary

Today’s EURUSD forecast favours the USD. At the same time, technical analysis suggests a price correction towards the 1.1550 resistance level before a decline.

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