Interest rates in question, EURUSD waiting for direction

Ahead of the ECB President’s speech, the EURUSD rate is forming a correction and trading near 1.1520. Discover more in our analysis for 24 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak today
• The market is awaiting the Fed’s interest rate decision
• EURUSD forecast for 24 November 2025: 1.1470 and 1.1555

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak today.

Key expectations from her speech:

• Updated comments on ECB monetary policy and the outlook for interest rate adjustments
• Eurozone economic conditions: inflation, demand, and the ECB’s assessment of the current environment
• Expected emphasis on risks and external factors: trade barriers, geopolitics, supply-chain logistics, and external demand
• ECB’s inflation outlook and future monetary policy steps for the eurozone

Today's EURUSD outlook considers that if the ECB President gives any hints on interest rate policy, this may impact the euro’s trajectory. A decision to keep interest rates unchanged would likely strengthen the euro against the USD.

Markets are also looking for signals from the Federal Reserve. A rate cut would weaken the USD and could push the EURUSD rate higher.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair may form a corrective wave following this signal. Given that the quotes remain within the descending channel, they may head towards 1.1555. A rebound from this level would open the way for a renewed downtrend.

However, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the pair falls directly to 1.1470 without testing the resistance level.

Summary

Lagarde’s speech may trigger euro strengthening. The EURUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 1.1555 before a potential decline.

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