EURUSD under pressure: will the Fed choose easing or shock tightening?

Ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision, the EURUSD pair is trading near 1.1625. Find more details in our analysis for 10 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Fed's interest rate decision
• Stabilising inflation in the eurozone
• EURUSD forecast for 10 December 2025: 1.1670

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast reflects that the euro continues its corrective wave today, with the pair trading near 1.1625.

The market is awaiting today’s Fed interest rate decision. If the Federal Reserve continues to ease monetary policy, the USD will weaken, giving the euro room to strengthen. In this scenario, the EURUSD rate may form another upward wave. However, the possibility of the Fed unexpectedly tightening policy and raising the rate should not be ruled out. Such a move would strengthen the USD and could trigger a reversal in EURUSD, sending the pair lower.

Stabilising inflation in the eurozone and moderate economic dynamics give the ECB room to keep rates unchanged, while the Fed is moving towards easing.

The forecast for 10 December 2025 takes into account that any positive economic data from the eurozone may act as a trigger for EURUSD growth.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair may develop an upward wave as the pattern plays out. Since the price remains within an ascending channel, it may head towards 1.1670. A breakout above this level would open the potential for continued upward momentum.

However, today’s EURUSD forecast also includes an alternative scenario with a corrective move towards 1.1600 before growth resumes.

Summary

The EURUSD outlook today favours the euro, with technical analysis suggesting a rise towards 1.1700.

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