The euro on the rise, which could change EURUSD dynamics

Ahead of the ECB President's speech, the euro is strengthening against the USD, with the price testing the 1.1840 level. Discover more in our analysis for 9 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde
• The euro is once again attempting to strengthen
• EURUSD forecast for 9 February 2026: 1.1920

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the price is forming an upward wave and trading around the 1.1840 level.

Fundamental analysis for 5 February 2026 considers that ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak today.

Key expectations from the speech:

• Lagarde is highly likely to reiterate the decision to keep the interest rate at 2.15%, emphasising that the fight against inflation is not yet over. She may point to persistent price risks (service sector, wages), discouraging markets from prematurely pricing in rate cuts
• Emphasis on data dependence. This is expected to be a key message. Most likely, she will avoid providing specific timing guidance, stating that any further steps will depend on new macroeconomic forecasts (in March) and core inflation dynamics
• There is a high probability that she will express concern about the weakness of the eurozone economy, especially the German industrial sector
• Since the euro is under pressure due to the interest rate differential between the eurozone and the US, Lagarde may indirectly support the currency by showing less readiness to ease policy than the Federal Reserve

Overall, the euro has once again gained a chance to strengthen against the USD, and following the ECB President’s speech, the EURUSD pair may continue to rise.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and continues its upward movement following this signal. Since prices remain within an ascending channel, they may move towards the 1.1920 area. A breakout above this level would open the way for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests an alternative scenario in which the pair declines towards the 1.1780 level before resuming growth.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1920 and 1.2045
• Key support levels: 1.1780 and 1.1680

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

After consolidation in the 1.1920–1.1930 range and with easing pressure from the dollar, the EURUSD pair may resume growth. A consolidation above 1.1920 would signal the end of the correction phase and the market’s readiness to continue the upward move towards the January highs. The risk-to-reward ratio is around 1:4, with the potential profit of about 125 pips and a risk of around 30 pips.

• Buy Stop: 1.1920
• Take Profit: 1.2045
• Stop Loss: 1.1890

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1780 support level would intensify downside pressure and open the door for a deeper correction after the January rally.

• Sell Stop: 1.1770
• Take Profit: 1.1670
• Stop Loss: 1.1800

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish EURUSD scenario include sustained demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid sell-offs in risk markets and potential heightened expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance following new comments from policymakers.

Summary

Ahead of the ECB President’s speech, the euro continues to strengthen, with EURUSD technical analysis suggesting growth towards the 1.1920 level.

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