EURUSD at the key 1.1900 level: US employment data may overturn the market

Positive US employment statistics may support the USD, with the EURUSD rate testing the 1.1900 level. Find out more in our analysis for 11 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 50 thousand, projected at 70 thousand
• US private Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 37 thousand, projected at 70 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 11 February 2026: 1.1870 and 1.2010

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the price is forming an upward wave and trading around the 1.1900 level.

Fundamental analysis for 11 February 2026 considers that US Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released today.

The previous Nonfarm Payrolls reading disappointed investors, coming in below expectations. The current forecast stands at 70 thousand, compared with the previous 50 thousand. If the reported figure matches the forecast, it will strengthen the USD, and the market may experience heightened volatility. The Nonfarm Payrolls release almost always triggers strong reactions in financial markets and can either support the US dollar or, conversely, undermine its position.

US private nonfarm payrolls are also projected to rise to 70 thousand on 11 February 2026, up from the previous 37 thousand. Employment growth is a positive factor for the US economy and may provide substantial support to the USD. Against this backdrop, the EURUSD pair may form a corrective wave.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and continues its upward wave following the pattern’s signal. Since quotes remain within an ascending channel, they may move towards the 1.2010 level. A breakout above this mark will open the way for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario, in which the price undergoes a correction towards 1.1870 before further growth.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.2010 and 1.2045
• Key support levels: 1.1780 and 1.1730

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation around 1.1930 will create conditions for long positions, with the first upside target at 1.2010. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2, with a potential profit of around 80 pips and a risk of about 30 pips.

• Buy Stop: 1.1930
• Take Profit: 1.2010
• Stop Loss: 1.1900

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 1.1870 will increase selling pressure and cancel the bullish scenario.

• Sell Stop: 1.1865
• Take Profit: 1.1775
• Stop Loss: 1.1890

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario may emerge after the release of strong US macroeconomic data, which could support the US dollar and shift market expectations towards a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy.

Summary

The euro continues to strengthen, but US employment statistics may change everything. At this stage, EURUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 1.2010 level.

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