EURUSD weekly forecast: pressure on the euro increases

The Fed lowered interest rates, while the ECB left its rate unchanged. The contrast in their rhetoric set the tone for the currency market this week. A December rate cut by the Fed is not guaranteed – this strengthened the dollar and increased pressure on the euro.

Additional support for the US dollar came from the outcome of the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which resulted in a partial trade truce. Against this backdrop, the euro has so far failed to hold above 1.1700, and the pair remains under pressure.

This review examines how the divergence of monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB, along with developments in US-China trade negotiations, may affect EURUSD performance during 3–7 November.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair ended a volatile week influenced by central bank decisions and political events. Pressure on the euro intensified after Fed statements. The US currency also gained additional support from the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting, which resulted in a trade truce
• Current trend: the pair is trading near 1.1560 and remains within the 1.1530–1.1730 range, reflecting consolidation after the decline. The euro is testing the lower boundary of the range, and technical indicators point to a neutral-to-bearish outlook
• Outlook for 3 – 7 November: the baseline scenario suggests continued sideways movement within the 1.1530–1.1700 range. Weak US data may trigger a short-term rebound to 1.1680–1.1730. However, unless the pair consolidates above 1.1730, the moderately bearish trend remains dominant

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair experienced a volatile week with a high concentration of events. The US currency was supported by reduced expectations of further Fed rate cuts.

At its 29 October meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4%. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that further easing in December is not guaranteed. According to market estimates, the likelihood of another rate cut dropped from 90% to 75%.

The ECB held interest rates steady at 2.15% and emphasised in its comments that future decisions would depend on incoming data.

Additional support for the dollar came from the outcome of the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The parties agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods and suspend export restrictions on rare earth metals. Simultaneously, Beijing pledged to increase purchases of American soybeans and reduce exports of fentanyl.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair continues to trade within a narrow range after an extended decline, holding around 1.1560. Since late August, the pair has hovered between 1.1530 and 1.1730, reflecting a consolidation phase and the absence of a clear trend.

The euro is testing the lower boundary of the range. The 1.1537 support level remains key to maintaining balance. A breakout below this level may trigger further decline towards 1.1480–1.1400. The 1.1730 resistance level limits upside potential.

Technical indicators confirm a neutral-to-bearish outlook. MACD remains in negative territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator shows oversold conditions. This may signal a potential short-term bounce. Overall, unless the euro consolidates above 1.1730, the moderately bearish scenario remains the base case.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair is consolidating around 1.1560 after a volatile week, during which the dollar was supported by the Fed's decision and news of a trade truce between the US and China. Jerome Powell’s remarks that a December rate cut is not guaranteed boosted the dollar and limited the euro’s upside.

On the chart, the pair is hovering within the 1.1530–1.1730 range, showing signs of consolidation. MACD remains in the negative territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator signals oversold conditions – collectively pointing to a potential short-term upward bounce.

• Buy scenario

Long positions are possible if the price consolidates above 1.1700.

Targets: 1.1800–1.1850

Stop-loss: below 1.1560

• Sell scenario

Short positions are relevant if the price breaks below 1.1550.

Targets: 1.1440 and 1.1380

Stop-loss: above 1.1600

Conclusion: the baseline scenario is sideways consolidation within the 1.1530–1.1700 range with a moderately bearish bias. The market is awaiting fresh signals from the Fed and macroeconomic data to determine the next direction.

Summary

General sentiment on the EURUSD pair is cautiously neutral. The dollar was supported by Jerome Powell’s remarks that another Fed rate cut in December is not guaranteed, as well as the outcome of the Trump-Xi Jinping trade meeting. The ECB left its rate unchanged, stressing data dependence for future decisions.

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD pair is consolidating near 1.1560, staying within the 1.1530–1.1730 range. Indicators suggest a possible short-term rebound, while the overall tone remains moderately bearish.

The baseline scenario for the week of 3–7 November, the pair will likely remain in the sideways range, with potential recovery to 1.1680–1.1730 on weak US data, and risk of decline towards 1.1480 if the dollar strengthens.

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