EURUSD weekly forecast: market doubts limit growth

The EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure as markets revised expectations for the Fed December decision. More Federal Reserve officials are expressing doubts about the need for further rate cuts.

Additional pressure on the US dollar came from the delayed jobs report: in September, the US economy added 119 thousand jobs, while unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. However, the USD remained strong. This review analyses the factors likely to impact the EURUSD rate in the upcoming week of November.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure as the market continues to revise expectations for the Federal Reserve December decision. Committee members have become noticeably more cautious, and the delayed jobs report (119 thousand new jobs and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%) confirmed Jerome Powell’s view that a rate cut is not guaranteed. The FOMC minutes revealed serious disagreements, adding more uncertainty for the pair.
• Current trend: the pair is holding near 1.1535 with a downward structure. The EURUSD rate is consolidating within the 1.1470–1.1655 range, having failed to break above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Price remains in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, with dynamic resistance around 1.1600. MACD stays in negative territory, with no reversal signal yet.
• Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests sideways movement within the 1.1470–1.1655 range. A breakout below 1.1470 will intensify pressure and open the path to 1.1400. For the euro to recover, the pair must consolidate above 1.1600 and break through 1.1655 – only then will the short-term picture change.

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure. The market continues to react to revised expectations for Fed policy, as more officials adopt a cautious stance.

Throughout the week, FOMC members expressed doubts about a December rate cut. Austan Goolsbee noted that the slowdown in inflation progress and the lack of data due to the shutdown make him uncertain about further easing. Beth Hammack warned that additional cuts could prolong high inflation and fuel risky market behaviour.

The publication of the delayed employment report intensified the fundamental backdrop: in September, the US economy added 119 thousand jobs, more than double the forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. This mixed data supported Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s point that a December rate cut is far from assured.

The FOMC minutes also confirmed deep divisions within the committee, with many favouring a pause, while some are ready to support another cut in December if the situation allows.

Looking ahead, the Fed's comments and updated macroeconomic data, which are expected following the shutdown backlog, will set the market tone.

With three weeks to go before the December meeting, the diverging views among FOMC members create an uncertainty zone for the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair continues its downward trajectory. The instrument remains under pressure after several failed attempts to break above the 1.1655 zone, a key medium-term resistance level. Recent candlesticks are forming near 1.1535, reflecting weak buying momentum and a lack of confidence in a recovery.

Since early November, the pair has stabilised above the 1.1470 support level. This marks the lower boundary of the range, keeping sellers from pushing prices further down. The current phase appears to be consolidation between 1.1470 and 1.1655 following a decline, but the structure remains bearish. Prices are hovering in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, with the midline around 1.1600 acting as dynamic resistance.

MACD remains in negative territory and is gradually declining, signalling weakening buying pressure and continued bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is near oversold levels, indicating potential exhaustion, but sending no clear reversal yet. The market may stay near these lower levels for some time.

A breakout below the 1.1470 level would open the door to a deeper decline. For a recovery, the pair must consolidate above 1.1600 and return to 1.1655 – only then will the short-term structure change.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair ended the week near 1.1535, under pressure after repeated failed attempts to break above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Fundamentally, the pair is trading amid growing uncertainty as more Fed officials are questioning the appropriateness of a December rate cut, and the delayed jobs report widened the divergence in economic outlooks.

The technical picture now appears negative. The EURUSD pair is hovering in the lower part of the 1.1470–1.1655 range, trading below dynamic resistance near 1.1600. MACD remains in negative territory, showing weak buying interest, while the Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory but lacks a reversal impulse. The market structure remains bearish despite the local consolidation.

• Buy scenario

Long positions become relevant only after a firm consolidation above 1.1600, with confirmation of a bullish reversal coming from a breakout above 1.1655.

Targets: 1.1720–1.1745, then 1.1800

Stop-loss: below 1.1535

• Sell scenario

Short positions are preferred after a breakout below the 1.1470 level, confirming a renewed bearish trend.

Targets: 1.1400–1.1380, and if pressure increases, movement towards 1.1300 may follow.

Stop-loss: above 1.1600

Conclusion:

The baseline scenario is consolidation between 1.1470–1.1600, with an increased risk of retesting the lower boundary of the range if the dollar strengthens. To confirm a bullish reversal, the EURUSD pair must consolidate above 1.1655, which remains the key resistance area capping buyers.

Summary

The EURUSD pair will likely remain within a neutral range during 24–28 November, reflecting market caution ahead of the Fed’s December meeting. Uncertainty due to delayed macroeconomic reports and the absence of clear signals from the Fed and ECB prevents the pair from forming a sustainable bullish impulse.

The technical structure has turned gloomier: the EURUSD pair is consolidating within the 1.1470–1.1600 range without breaking key levels. Indicators show weakening downward momentum, but the lack of consolidation above 1.1600 limits the recovery potential to 1.1680–1.1730. If the dollar strengthens and Fed rhetoric becomes more hawkish, the pair could retest 1.1450–1.1470. The baseline scenario for the week suggests sideways movement with a slight bullish bias if US data comes in weak.

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