GBPUSD surges on US economic worries

The GBPUSD rate is correcting after rebounding from the 1.2855 resistance level. Find more details in our analysis for 9 April 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Markets fear a US recession, which may force the Fed to accelerate rate cuts
• According to BoE deputy governor, the impact of tariffs on UK inflation remains unclear
• GBPUSD forecast for 9 April 2025: 1.2945

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is strengthening for the second consecutive session. The US dollar continues to lose ground amid sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Market participants worry that the escalation of the global trade war could tip the US economy into recession, potentially prompting the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. This sentiment supports the British pound, contributing to a bullish GBPUSD outlook.

Meanwhile, Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli stated that it is too early to draw firm conclusions about the impact of US tariffs on UK inflation. She acknowledged a likely slowdown in economic growth but noted that final inflation assessments will come closer to the next BoE meeting.

Against this backdrop, markets are almost certain the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May and are pricing in three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

GBPUSD technical analysis

The GBPUSD rate is rising despite persisting pressure from sellers. Today’s GBPUSD forecast suggests a continued upward correction, with the potential to reach 1.2945. The Stochastic Oscillator supports the bullish outlook, rebounding from the ascending support line, indicating buyers may be ready to push further. A breakout above the 1.2855 resistance level would confirm this scenario.

Summary

The GBPUSD rate is strengthening amid trade risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The GBPUSD technical analysis points to an ongoing upward correction, with the potential to reach 1.2945.