USDCAD is falling: what factors could strengthen the CAD

Increased volatility in oil prices impacts the USDCAD rate significantly, with quotes testing the 1.3640 level. Discover more in our analysis for 9 February 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

• The CAD is once again attempting to strengthen
• Rising oil prices are supporting the CAD
• USDCAD forecast for 9 February 2026: 1.3570

Fundamental analysis

Today’s USDCAD outlook is optimistic for the CAD. The pair continues to decline and is trading around the 1.3640 level.

Key drivers of USDCAD movement this week:

• The main driver is sharp fluctuations in oil prices (WTI, Brent). Canada is a major commodity exporter, and weakness in the oil sector directly affects the CAD. Investors are taking profits after the recent rise in commodity prices, while data from China indicates slowing demand, which is influencing USDCAD quotes
• After strong US employment and inflation data, the Federal Reserve is reconsidering the timing of interest rate cuts. Most likely, the rate decision will be postponed to a later date
• Last week, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged but signalled the possibility of rate cuts in the future, citing economic slowdown and inflation under control
• A speech by a member of the Bank of Canada Governing Council. Any hints at the possibility of an early rate cut could significantly affect the CAD, pushing the USDCAD pair higher

Despite the economic data from the US and Canada, the CAD still has good chances to strengthen in the near term.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and may continue its downward movement following the pattern’s signal. Since prices remain within the descending channel, a decline towards the nearest support level at 1.3570 can be expected. A breakout below this level would open the way for continued downward momentum.

At the same time, the forecast for 9 February 2026 also includes an alternative scenario, where the price undergoes a correction towards the 1.3700 level before a decline.

USDCAD overview

• Asset: USDCAD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.3700 and 1.3790
• Key support levels: 1.3570 and 1.3515

USDCAD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above the 1.3700 level will confirm a breakout above local resistance and create technical conditions for opening long positions with priority on further upward movement. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2. The potential profit at the target is about 90 pips, while potential losses are limited to 40 pips.

• Take Profit: 1.3790
• Stop Loss: 1.3660

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A bearish scenario is possible if prices fall below the 1.3570 level, indicating a return to the descending channel and a continued decline in the USDCAD rate.

• Take Profit: 1.3510
• Stop Loss: 1.3600

Risk factors

Risk factors for further USDCAD growth include a potential decline in global risk appetite and sharp fluctuations in oil prices, which may add to pressure on the currency pair. Additionally, any unexpected Fed policy easing or weak US economic data may slow the bullish momentum.

Summary

Amid rising oil prices, the CAD is attempting to strengthen against the USD. Technical analysis of USDCAD suggests a decline towards the 1.3570 support level.

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