USDJPY: the yen continues its attempts to strengthen

Amid economic data from the US and Japan, the USDJPY rate may resume its ascent towards 157.70 following a correction. More details in our analysis for 23 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s export growth: previously at 3.8%, currently at 2.8%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 217 thousand, projected at 221 thousand
• Speech by US President Donald Trump
• USDJPY forecast for 23 January 2025: 157.70 and 155.90

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 23 January 2025 notes that Japan’s export growth declined to 2.8% compared to the previous period. Given the Japanese economy’s reliance on exports, this represents negative news for the yen. However, the actual result exceeded the forecast of 2.3%, leading to a slight correction in the USDJPY rate.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the preceding week. This indicator serves as a key measure of labour market conditions, with an increase in claims signalling a rise in unemployment.

The previous reading was 217 thousand, while the forecast for 23 January 2025 is less optimistic, predicting an increase to 221 thousand. Variations between expectations and actual data could significantly impact the USDJPY rate.

Donald Trump will deliver a speech today, 23 January 2025, likely addressing key economic, political, and social issues. Topics may include the US economic outlook, foreign policy, and migration issues. Trump’s speeches often aim to bolster support for his core policies. A portion of his address today may focus on national security while delivering criticisms of political opponents.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY price tested the lower Bollinger Band and formed a Hammer reversal pattern. At this stage, it continues its upward trajectory following the signal from the pattern. The uptrend will likely continue as the price has rebounded from the support level and remains within the boundaries of an ascending channel.

The growth target is the 157.70 resistance level. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a more substantial upward movement.

However, an alternative scenario is possible, wherein the price corrects towards 155.90 before resuming its upward trend.

Summary

Alongside the USDJPY technical analysis for 23 January 2025, Trump’s speech and US economic indicators suggest a correction before the USDJPY price resumes its upward trajectory.