USDJPY rose and stopped: time needed to process data

The USDJPY pair is hovering at 154.16 on Thursday as investors change their views on the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate. Find more details in our analysis for 13 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair strengthened markedly and hit a weekly high
• Investors are forced to revise their expectations after the release of the latest US inflation statistics
• USDJPY forecast for 13 February 2025: 154.98

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 154.16 on Thursday and is now stabilising. The current reading is the lowest for the Japanese yen in a week.

The thing is that the latest US inflation data forced the market to lower expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s further interest rate cuts. Investors are currently pricing in just one 25-basis-point cut this year, while a couple of days ago expectations suggested two rate cuts.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda did not give a clear indication of the interest rate stance. The primary course remains the same, with the Bank of Japan continuing to pursue its monetary policy to achieve the 2% inflation target, where it expects to stay.

The USDJPY forecast appears moderately positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has the potential to extend an upward wave towards 154.98.

At the same time, the odds of a correction are increasing, with the first target at 153.75 and the next at 153.26.

Summary

The USDJPY pair reached a weekly peak and has stopped for now. A shift in expectations for the US interest rate and the lack of decisiveness from the Bank of Japan worked against the JPY. The forecast for today, 13 February 2025, suggests continued buying, with a target at 154.98.