USDJPY forecast: will bulls take control or will bears crush 149.00?

The USDJPY rate is consolidating around 149.00; market participants are awaiting the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan interest rate decisions this week. Discover more in our analysis for 17 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the market is awaiting interest rate decisions and relevant comments from the US and Japanese central banks on Wednesday
• Current trend: correcting within the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 17 March 2025: 150.00 and 148.10

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY quotes corrected towards the area around 149.00 after hitting an annual low of 146.54 last week. The Japanese yen is in demand due to growing concerns about the expansion of global trade wars and expectations of a further benchmark rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

The Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decisions on Wednesday. The rates are expected to remain unchanged at 0.5% and 4.5%, respectively. However, the regulators’ subsequent comments, depending on the information they contain about future monetary policy actions, may significantly impact the USDJPY movements.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair is trading in a descending price channel, with the price currently undergoing a local upward correction after rebounding from its lower boundary. The local target for the upward correction is the 150.00 level, which coincides with the upper boundary of the price channel.

The USDJPY forecast for today suggests that the pair will have the potential for a further correction towards the 150.00 resistance level if the bulls gain a foothold above 149.00. Conversely, if the bears seize the initiative and reverse the quotes upwards, the pair could retrace to the 148.10 support level.

Summary

The USDJPY rate is undergoing an upward correction, returning to 149.00. The pair’s further dynamics will be determined on Wednesday following the interest rate decisions and relevant comments from the US and Japanese central banks.