US GDP sets up market shock – how will this affect USDJPY?

A sharp drop in US GDP and a rise in initial jobless claims may push the USDJPY pair lower towards the 144.70 level. Find more details in our analysis for 29 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• US Q1 GDP: previously at 2.4%, currently at -0.3%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 227 thousand, projected at 229 thousand
• USDJPY forecast for 29 May 2025: 146.80 and 144.70

Fundamental analysis

GDP measures the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country, excluding raw materials.

The forecast for 29 May 2025 considers that US GDP could fall to -0.3% from 2.4% in the previous quarter. If actual figures match or fall below expectations, the US dollar may come under pressure.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

Today’s USDJPY forecast does not appear optimistic, suggesting an increase from 227 thousand to 229 thousand. While the rise is minor, a significant deviation from expectations could notably impact the USDJPY rate.

USDJPY technical analysis

Having tested the upper Bollinger Band, the USDJPY pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern on the H4 chart, with the price currently hovering around 145.60. The pair may continue its downward trajectory following the pattern signal. Since the price remains within a descending channel, it could move towards the 144.70 support level.

However, today’s USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the price corrects towards 146.80 before a decline.

Summary

With the US GDP forecast pointing to contraction, the USDJPY outlook appears optimistic for the yen. USDJPY technical analysis suggests a correction towards 144.70.