USDJPY extends gains following central bank decisions

The USDJPY pair maintains its upward momentum amid the ongoing monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The rate currently stands at 153.05. Discover more in our analysis for 30 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Divisions within the Federal Reserve limit expectations for further rate cuts
• Investors are turning back to the dollar following Powell’s cautious comments
• USDJPY forecast for 30 October 2025: 153.80

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate continues to rise for the second consecutive session, with buyers aiming to retest the key resistance level near 153.20 again. The yen remains under pressure after the Bank of Japan, as expected, left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%, with a vote of 7–2. Two board members reiterated their preference for raising the rate to 0.75%, in line with their stance expressed earlier in September.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, as widely anticipated. However, Chairman Jerome Powell emphasised that another rate reduction this year is not guaranteed, citing internal divisions within the FOMC and limited economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Market expectations for an additional rate cut before year-end have dropped to below 70.3%, down from over 95% before Wednesday’s meeting. As a result, the yen remains under pressure, and the USDJPY rate retains upside potential towards 153.20.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY pair continues to recover after rebounding from the lower boundary of its ascending channel. Prices remain above the EMA-65, confirming bullish momentum and sustained buying interest.

The USDJPY forecast suggests the rally could continue towards 153.85. The Stochastic Oscillator further supports the bullish scenario, bouncing from its support line and turning upwards – a sign of renewed buying activity.

A consolidation above 153.20 would increase the likelihood of a test of the channel’s upper boundary near 153.80 in the short term.

Summary

The combination of the BoJ’s dovish stance and the Fed’s cautious tone continues to support demand for the US dollar. USDJPY technical analysis suggests sustained bullish momentum, with high odds of continued growth towards the 153.85 level in the near term.

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