USDJPY holds above key resistance at 153.20

The USDJPY pair continues to rise as investors reassess expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the rate currently at 153.95. Discover more in our analysis for 31 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The yen remains under pressure following the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed
• Market expectations for a December rate cut have fallen to 67% after Powell’s comments
• USDJPY forecast for 31 October 2025: 154.85

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction after a sharp two-day rally, with buyers confidently breaking above the strong resistance level at 153.20. Pressure on the yen persists following the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new Prime Minister, who supports an expansionary fiscal policy and continued ultra-loose monetary conditions. Takaichi also clarified that she no longer adheres to her March statements about a fair yen exchange rate of 120–130 per dollar, citing her new responsibilities involving currency policy.

Meanwhile, the US dollar received a boost after the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where the central bank delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut. However, Jerome Powell emphasised that another rate cut in December is not predetermined. Following his remarks, market expectations for a December rate reduction dropped sharply from over 90% to 67%.

USDJPY technical analysis

After a strong surge, the USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction, having rebounded from the lower boundary of an ascending channel. Prices continue to trade above the EMA-65, confirming that the bullish momentum remains intact.

The USDJPY forecast suggests continued growth towards the 154.85 target. The Stochastic Oscillator reinforces this scenario, as its lines have turned upwards after bouncing from oversold territory – a signal of renewed buying pressure.

Consolidation above 154.10 would indicate an exit from the downward corrective channel, which will be a key condition for the continuation of the bullish scenario.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop for the USDJPY pair remains bullish, supported by yen weakness and reduced expectations for additional Fed easing. USDJPY technical analysis suggests continued growth towards 154.85, provided the pair breaks above the upper boundary of the corrective channel.

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