USDJPY moves sideways amid concerns about BoJ rate

The USDJPY pair strengthened to 154.60 as investors closely watch the policy divide between Japan’s government and the central bank. Find out more in our analysis for 17 November 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the USDJPY pair continues to trade sideways
• Current trend: the Japanese government favours a loose monetary policy, while the BoJ signals readiness to raise rates
• USDJPY forecast for 17 November 2025: 155.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 154.60 per dollar on Monday, staying close to February’s highs despite stronger-than-expected economic data from Japan.

Japan’s GDP fell by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 after a 0.6% rise in Q2, performing better than the expected 0.6% decline.

The yen remains under pressure following comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who reiterated her view that the Bank of Japan should maintain low interest rates to support economic growth and gradual inflation.

Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that consumer spending remains resilient amid rising household incomes and a solid labour market. He added that core inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, leaving the door open for a possible rate hike.

The USDJPY outlook is positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair continues to consolidate sideways after a sharp rally at the end of October. The price is fluctuating within the 153.60–155.05 range, forming uneven movements around the Bollinger Bands’ midline. The upper band is gradually widening, reflecting higher volatility, although there is no clear breakout momentum yet.

The 155.05 resistance level remains the key barrier, as several breakout attempts have failed. Support lies at 153.60–153.97, where the pair often rebounds. Local candlestick formations show weakening selling pressure below 154.00, but buyers also lose momentum near 155.00.

Overall, the structure remains neutral. The market awaits a catalyst that will determine the next direction – either a breakout above 155.05 or a pullback towards a stronger support level near 153.60.

Summary

The USDJPY pair remains range-bound while awaiting key developments. The USDJPY forecast for today, 17 November 2025, suggests potential growth towards 155.05 if a new driver emerges.

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