USDJPY hits a new record and sharply reverses – what is next?

A decline in US economic indicators may trigger a correction in the USDJPY rate towards the 156.50 support level. Find more details in our analysis for 21 November 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s services PMI: previously at 53.1, currently at 53.1
• US services PMI: previously at 54.8, projected at 54.6
• US manufacturing PMI: previously at 52.5, projected at 52.0
• USDJPY forecast for 21 November 2025: 156.50 and 158.50

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 21 November 2025 takes into account that the USDJPY pair, having set another price record for 2025, is forming a correction and is currently trading near 157.20.

Japan’s services PMI includes various sectors such as transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, information technology, as well as hospitality and food services.

The USDJPY outlook for today appears fairly optimistic for the Japanese yen, as the PMI remained unchanged from the previous period at 53.1 points. At the moment, the index is above the 50.0 threshold, which should add some optimism to the yen.

The US services PMI is expected to decline to 54.6 from the previous value of 54.8. While the decrease may not be critical, this is only a forecast, and the actual figure may differ significantly, which could add either support or pressure to the USD.

The manufacturing PMI measures purchasing managers’ activity in the industrial sector. It reflects the state of the industrial sector and the dynamics of manufacturing processes in the country. Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion, while values below 50.0 signal contraction.

The previous US manufacturing PMI was 52.5 points, and the forecast for 21 November 2025 expects a decline to 52.0. While the decrease is not critical, combined with other fundamental indicators, it may weigh on the USD.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed a Shooting Star bearish reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and is trading around 157.20. At this stage, the pair may develop a downward wave following the pattern’s signal, with 156.50 acting as the target for the correction.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast considers an alternative scenario in which the price rises directly towards 158.50 without testing the support level.

Summary

Weak forecasts for US economic data support the yen. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests a correction towards the 156.50 support level before a potential rebound.

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