USDJPY maintains bullish momentum amid rising expectations of Japanese intervention

The USDJPY rate is rising after a corrective pullback, confirming sustained bullish momentum. The current rate is 156.63. Find out more in our analysis for 24 November 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Markets increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the likelihood of a December reduction up to 69% from 44% a week earlier
• Adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Tokyo is ready to actively intervene in the currency market to offset the impact of a weak yen
• The market strengthened expectations of possible Japanese intervention as the USDJPY pair approaches the 160 level
• USDJPY forecast for 24 November 2025: 158.45

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is strengthening again after Friday’s sharp decline. Last week, pressure on the USD intensified as markets continued to price in a possible Fed rate cut in the coming months, with labour-market weakness now seen as a more serious risk than elevated inflation. The likelihood of a December 25-basis-point rate cut rose to 69%, up from 44% a week ago.

Meanwhile, an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that the Japanese authorities are ready to actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the economic impact of a weak yen. Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also voiced concern about the depreciation of the national currency. These remarks increased expectations of currency intervention if the USDJPY rate approaches the 160 level, the threshold at which authorities have previously stepped in.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY pair is undergoing a correction while remaining within the ascending channel. Buyers encountered temporary resistance at 156.50, where the upper boundary of the corrective channel is located. The price retreated from this level, indicating a short-term weakening of bullish momentum. Today's USDJPY outlook suggests renewed growth targeting 158.45.

Additional support for the bullish scenario comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, whose signal lines have turned upwards from oversold territory, increasing the likelihood of a new bullish impulse. A breakout and sustained consolidation above the 156.70 level would provide strong technical confirmation of continued upward momentum and signal a breakout of the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel.

Summary

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a high probability of Japanese currency intervention near the 160 level are adding to pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, USDJPY technical analysis indicates a strong likelihood of continued bullish momentum towards 158.45.

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